Weekly COT Report: GBP Record Net Short

Weekly COT Report Trading Themes: The US Dollar ended the week with a bid tone buyoed by Fed vice chairman Stanley Fischer who said that the central bank is close to hitting its targets for full employment and 2.0% inflation and gave a generally upbeat assessment of the economy. His comments along with remarks from other top officials last week signalled that a September hike has not been completely ruled out, contrary to prices for interest rates futures Prices for rates contracts showed investors see 50/50 odds of an increase in Dec. USD strengthened Friday, the USD Dollar Index climbed 0.37% to 94.51, boosted by refuge demand as well as hawkish Fed rhetoric. This week focus will be firmly on FED Chair Yellen who speaks Friday from the anual Jackson Hole Symposium as traders returning from vacation look to position for Spetember.

EUR: PMI’s and German IFO Buisness climate focus this week
GBP: UK PMI’s will be pivotal this week
JPY: BoJ Govenor starts the week talking more stimulus
CHF: SNB remain in the market but particpants question for how long
AUD: AUD trading in tandem with risk sentiment, pull back in equities could hamper AUD upside
CAD: Oil flows continue to drive the Canadian Dollar

Let’s take a look at what the latest COT report data is showing us from a trend and net change week over a week perspective…

  • EUR bearish, decreased on the week
  • GBP bearish, increased on the week
  • JPY bullish, increased on the week
  • CHF neutral, neutral on the week
  • AUD bullish, increased on the week
  • CAD bullish, neutral on the week

EURUSD Outlook – Bearish

Although the latest German Producer Price Index figures beat the forecasts, this was not enough to prevent the Euro retreating further on Friday. Germany released its July PPI figures with better-than-expected results, up by 1% monthly basis and down by 2% compared to a year before

COT Indicators

  • Index active sell signal ticks up
  • Strength active sell ticks up
  • Momentum sell signal ticks up

LFOrder Flow Trader Bullish

eurocoteurcot

GBPUSD Outlook – Bearish

GBP dropped the most in two weeks against the USD as Prime Minister Theresa May was said to be leaning toward the first part of 2017 as the best moment to trigger the start of formal talks over the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union. Sterling still posted a weekly gain after reports showed July inflation, retail sales and jobless claims beat the forecasts, suggesting a more optimistic picture of the post-Brexit economy.

COT Indicators

  • Index sell signal consolidates at lows
  • Strength sell signal ticks down
  • Momentum sell signal ticks up

LFOrder Flow Trader Bearish

cablecot

 

gbpcot

USDJPY Outlook – Bullish

JPY Japan’s all industry activity index rose 1.0% MOM in June (May: – 1.3% MOM), helped by the expansion in industrial output and services activities. However, household spending remained lackluster last month, underscoring the government’s challenge to fuel spending and revive inflation. Department store sales declined 0.1% YOY in July after a 3.5% YOY drop in June.

COT Indicators

  • Strength active sell signal down
  • Index active sell signal ticks down
  • Momentum buy signal ticks down

LFOrder Flow Trader Bearish

yencot

jpycot

USDCHF Outlook – Bearish

The greenback gained momentum against the Swiss franc by worse-than-expected Swiss ZEW numbers Friday, sending USDCHF towards near 0.9640 region. USDCHF’s recovery from 0.9600 handle after the Swiss currency was badly hit by a sharp deterioration in Switzerland’s economic sentiment, with the figures printing at -2.8 versus 5.9 prior.

COT Indicators

  • Strength active buy signal ticks up
  • Index active buy signal ticks up
  • Momentum buy signal ticks down

LFOrder Flow Trader Bearish

swissycot

 

chfcot

AUDUSD – Outlook Bullish

AUD came under renewed selling pressure following a break below 0.7650 supporting handle and tested a fresh weekly low of 0.7596 on Friday with strong bid tone surrounding the US dollar during the day

COT Indicators

  • Strength active buy signal ticks up
  • Index active buy signal ticks up
  • Momentum buy signal ticks up

LFOrder Flow Trader Bullish

aussiecot

audcot

USDCAD OutlookBearish

CAD  weakened 0.7% to 1.2870 against the USD as Canadian retail sales posted an unexpected decline, showing signs of fading consumer spending that had been propping up the economy. Retail sales fell 0.1% in June compared with forecasts for a gain of 0.5% while annual inflation slowed to 1.3% in July, from 1.5% in the prior month.

COT Indicators

  • Strength sell signal ticks up
  • Index active sell signal ticks up
  • Momentum buy signal ticks up

LFOrder Flow Trader Bearish

looniecot

cadcot

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