Morning Report: Greek Parliament Vote Yes, USD At Three Month Highs

Market Commentary  

Global carry trade back on in full effect; Euro stocks up big as Greek deal approved; DAX highest in nearly 2 months; EUR and JPY back as preferred funders; Spanish, Italian bond yields fall back below 2%; Nasdaq fresh 15 yr highs. Greek reaction much more negative; debt restructuring uncertain despite urging of IMF; tough times ahead; Greek stocks lower; banks said to re-open Monday. DXY at new three month closing high 

EURUSD slipped below 1.0900 after Greece’s parliament approved an austerity plan demanded by its creditors. The ECB kept the rates unchanged and the bank has increased ELA to Greece by EUR900 mln for one week. German finance minister Schauble said temporary Grexit is still a good option and the German parliament will vote on the bailout plans today so yet another day of wire watching for EUR news driven trading.

GBPUSD  rose briefly to 1.5649 high on Mark Carney’s speech and eased back to 1.5600 level; whereas Cable hit a seven-and-a-half year high against a trade-weighted basket of currencies. Bank of England Carney said the decision to raise interest rates will come into sharper focus around the end of this year.

USDJPY climbed to a fresh 3-week high of 124.18 after stronger than expected US jobless claims data. Markets’ concerns surrounding Greece and China have eased, leading to a more risk seeking trading environment which is weighing on the yen.

Technical  Commentary 

EURUSD Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish  – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish

  • Buyers step in at the 1.0850 level while 1.0950 caps intraday upside expect a test of 1.0780/1.08, failure here opens 2015 lows downside pressure only reduced on a break above 1.1050
  • Daily Order Flow bearish; OBV sideways, Linear Regression and Psychology rotate around midpoints with bearish bias
  • Monitoring intraday price and Order Flow indicators on a test of 1.13 or 1.08

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GBPUSD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish  – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish

  • With 1.56 offers eroded price is retesting the ascending trendline from below as potential resistance, while 1.57 caps upside a break back below 1.5550 suggests bearish symmetry target at 1.5285 remains in play a close above 1.57 negates near term bearishness and resets focus on the 1.60 upside psych objective.
  • Daily Order Flow bullish; OBV sideways, Linear Regression and Psychology pierce midpoints from below
  • Monitoring intraday price action and Order Flow indicators on a test of 1.5285 or 1.5750

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USDJPY: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish  – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bullish

  • The break and close above 123 targets 125.85 next and 128 in extension. Failure at 122.50 again opens 120 in retest of ascending triangle trend line
  • Daily Order Flow bullish; OBV sideways, Linear Regression and Psychology bullish but lack momentum
  • Monitoring intraday price action and Order Flow indicators on a test of 128 or 120

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EURJPY: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish

  • Range trade persists, 133/34 breach of 133 opens retest of 2015 lows while above 138 opens 143
  • Daily Order Flow bearish; OBV sideways, Linear Regression and Psychology bearish
  • Monitoring intraday price action and Order Flow indicators at 138 and 133

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