Morning Report: EUR Gaps As Greek Concerns Escalate

Market Commentary  

The EURUSD gapped down over the weekend and fell below 1.12 at the Asian open, after Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras went on the offensive, seemingly pushing back against the latest offer from the International Monetary Fund, European Union and the European Central Bank announcing a bank holiday, capital controls, referendum on bailout July 5,  Reuters reports cash machines running dry, long gas queues. The euro fell to 1.053 in Asian trade.

GBP lifted in the second straight day on Friday on the back of revitalized prospects for a rise in British interest rates at the end of this year. A lift in wage growth and signs of renewed disagreement on the Bank of England’s policy committee to keeping rates on hold at record lows have provoked investors to price in a chance of a rise as early as December.

USDJPY lifted to 123.85, but was off from the weekly high of 124.37. Figures released on last Friday showed Japan’s household spending in May rose for the first time in more than a year. A robust jobs market drove hopes that companies will begin lifting wages needed to spark inflation towards the Bank of Japan’s 2 percent goal.

Technical  Commentary 

EURUSD Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish  – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish

  • Pivotal 1.1050 level will be closely watched on a closing basis, if this level survives on a daily close basis then the broader corrective phase remain intact, a loss of 1.1050 targets 1.08 as the next downside objective.
  • Daily Order Flow bearish; OBV down, Linear Regression and Psychology bearish
  • Monitoring intraday price and Order Flow indicators on a test of 1.16 or 1.1050

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GBPUSD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish  – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish

  • 1.57 survives again on a closing basis, as 1.5830/50 caps upside reactions expect test of primary trendline support at 1.5550, above 1.5850 opens retest of highs and 1.60 beyond, below 1.5550 opens 1.5350 next.
  • Daily Order Flow bearish; OBV sideways, Linear Regression and Psychology bullish but pulling back to test midpoints from above
  • Monitoring intraday price action and Order Flow indicators on a test of 1.57 or 1.6010

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USDJPY: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish  – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bullish

  • 122 pivotal support while 122.50 contains downside expect test of 125, failure at 122.50 opens pivotal 122 and the 121 corrective equality target below, while 125 caps upside expect test of 122, above 125 targets 127/128 next
  • Daily Order Flow bullish ; OBV sideways, Linear Regression and Psychology continue to rotate around midpoints with bearish bias
  • Monitoring intraday price action and Order Flow indicators on a test of 128 or 122/21

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EURJPY: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish

  • Price gapped through 137 support area and is currently testing the secondary 133/34 area a failure here will open a retest of the 130 level. While 133 supports expect retest of broken trendline support form below towards 138.
  • Daily Order Flow bearish; OBV down, Linear Regression and Psychology pierce midpoints from above but lack momentum
  • Monitoring intraday price action and Order Flow indicators at 138 and 133

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