Morning Report: Euro Grinds Higher Despite Greece

Market Commentary  

The EUR erased its losses and staged a fight back overnight as the shock of the failed negotiation between Greece and its creditors over the weekend faded. EURUSD closed surprisingly higher overnight despite European stocks being hit. The pair seems supported this morning consolidating on the topside of yesterday’s range at the 1.1260/85 region. 1.1295 (yesterday’s high) as the initial resistance level as Greek risk still looms. To the downside, 1.1250 and 1.1190 as demand levels which would keep the medium term uptrend intact. Given that today is light on data for the pair, price action might be choppy ahead of FOMC meeting this week. The next big event to look out for would be Thursday’s euro zone finance minister’s meeting which could potentially decide the fate of Greece.

GBP found support last night at its 200D SMA, and has traded above the 1.56 handle, supported by hawkish comments from Carney (looking for inflation to pick up, UK output growth remaining solid, and unemployment continuing to fall). Coincidentally, we get May inflation data today, GBP should find resistance ahead of 1.5700 going into tomorrow’s FOMC policy decision.

USDJPY woke up this morning after Kuroda virtually retracted his remarks from last week, and the pair bounced off the 123.30 support (also the low in NY) back to the initial resistance level of 123.80. Cross JPY demand was notable (particularly GBPJPY and EURJPY), and these comments from Kuroda should help underpin USDJPY going into tomorrow’s pivotal FOMC policy decision and Friday’s BOJ meeting.

Technical  Commentary 

EURUSD Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish

  • Bids at 1.12 support again 1,13 is the first bullish objective with an interim equality target at 1.1340 ahead of the 1.1465 high.
  • Daily Order Flow bullish ; OBV sideways to up, Linear Regression and Psychology bullish
  • Monitoring intraday price and Order Flow indicators on a test of 1.16 or 1.1050

eu2015-06-16 07_54_53-

 

GBPUSD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish

  • While 1.56 area contains the upside advance bears require an erosion of 1.5450 support to target 1.5350 next, while 1.5450 supports expect retest of 1.5815
  • Daily Order Flow bullish; OBV sideways to up , Linear Regression and Psychology bullish
  • Monitoring intraday price action and Order Flow indicators on a test of 1.5050 or 1.56

gu2015-06-16 07_55_56-

 

USDJPY: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish  – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bullish

  • 122 pivotal support while 123 contains downside expect test of 125, failure at 123 opens 122
  • Daily Order Flow bearish ; OBV sideways to up, Linear Regression and Psychology pierce midpoints from below
  • Monitoring intraday price action and Order Flow indicators on a test of 128  or 122

uj2015-06-16 07_57_01-

 

EURJPY: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish

  • While 141.75 area caps the advance look for a retest of 137 as potential base for next leg higher for symmetry swing objective at 143.60’s
  • Daily Order Flow bearish; OBV sideways to up, Linear Regression and Psychology pierce midpoints from below
  • Monitoring intraday price action and Order Flow indicators at 141.75 or 137/36

 

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