Morning Report: Key Data Releases Today

Key Data Releases Today

0830GMT – GBP BoE Minutes
1230GMT – USD CPI Ex Food & Energy (SEP) exp 1.7% v 1.7&
1230GMT – USD CPI (SEP) exp 1.6% v 1.7%
1400GMT – CAD BoC Rate Decision exp 1% v 1%


Overview:

A mixed day Yesterday as markets remain nervous over ECB bond buying and await key data releases today which could see another volatile Wednesday.

  • USD improved yesterday on better homesales data
  • EUR weakened on talk of ECB bond buying
  • AUD stronger initially on better China GDP only to move lower on US data.
  • CAD stronger on better China GDP
  • JPY fell on strong US homesales only to rebound on risk aversion
  • CHF fell in tandem with EUR (exports fell 3.3% m/m)

Key Trades

  • EURUSD: Short Term Bearish – Revised (shorts opened)
  • USDCAD: Short Term Bullish – No Change
  • GBPUSD: Awaiting Bearish Signal – Revised
  • USDJPY: Bullish – No Change
  • AUDUSD: Short Term Bearish – Revised (shorts opened)

Analysis

EURUSD: Short Term Bearish – Revised

  • Shorts opened on bearish H1 break of trendline in line with Order Flow Indicators having crossed to the downside.
  • Daily Order Flow Indicators firmly down in line with OBV – looking for break lower and retest of the NFP low.

Having made ground overnight on improved risk sentiment stemming from a better China GDP print, price fell over the day on fresh talk s of QE and Strong home sales data out of the US. US CPI today which could push EURUSD significantly lower on if the US data defies the deflationary trend we’ve seen in recent weeks.

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USDCAD: Short Term Bullish – No Change

  • Still holding longs as we tested Friday low and rejected.
  • Daily Order Flow Indicators turning here and so will look to reverse these trades short if we break Friday’s low with a downward cross on Order Flow Indicators. 

CAD was stronger yesterday on improved risk sentiment owing to better China GDP but global growth concerns still weigh. BoC Rate Decision is key today but markets expecting no surprises from the Central Bank

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GBPUSD: Awaiting Bearish Signal – Revised

  • Longs remain in play from lows
  • Cautious now as price has come off on approaching the descending trendlines and September doubletop, will switch to shorts on cross lower of Daily Order Flow Indicators targeting NFP lows initially.

Price fell yesterday on increased Public Sector Net Borrowing (11.83BN SEP). BoE Minutes release is key risk event today and following the disappointing Inflation print the expectation is that the release will see the Bank expecting to keep rates lower for longer.

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USDJPY: Bullish – No change

  • Longs are still in play with price continuing to hold the bullish trendline
  • Will add to longs on break of Monday’s high in line with lower timeframe Order Flow Indicators and Yesterdays Daily pin bar.

US CPI release will be key today, price consolidated yesterday selling off initially on improved risk sentiment before retracing losses on improved US homesales to close the day as a bullish pin, further endorsing our bullish view

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AUDUSD: Short Term Bearish – Revised

  • Short from break of Daily pin bar against contracting triangle resistance line. 
  • Daily Order Flow Indicators firmly to the downside and OBV still moving down
  • Targeting a retest of the NFP lows initially. Refer to AUDUSD analysis for bigger picture.

Overnight Aussie CPI came in inline y/y at 2.3% but better than expected q/q at .5% v .4%. but did little to support the pair.  Risk today comes from US CPI.

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