Morning Report: US Data To Decide Dollar Direction

Market Commentary                                                                                                                                       

EURUSD rose for three consecutive days against the dollar and tested 1.1000 ahead of the weekend it has pulled back in Asian trade testing 1.0930 bids. Policy makers have a responsibility for entire euro area, not just Greece or other individual countries, aiming at the stability of the world economy, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble commented over the weekend. Sizeable options roll off at today’s NY cut at 1.0925 and 1.10 these will likely bracket the action into the NY session.

GBPUSD has wiped out almost all of the gains it made after the Conservative Party won in the U.K.’s general election. Sterling fell for six consecutive days, the worst run in almost eight months, after data showed that Britain’s economic recovery may be faltering.

USDJPY maintained a bullish bias last week surging for six consecutive days. It is well understood internationally that Japan will make positive contributions not only to Japan’s economy but also to the global economy by ending deflation through QQE aimed at achieving a two percent inflation rate, according to BoJ’s Kuroda. 1.35bln vanilla expiries at 124.50 for todays NY cut, interbank reports suggest large option ‘knock outs’ at 125.00 which is the next bullish objective.

Traders will be unlikely to position to heavily as we start the week, we have a heavy data slate this week with ECB decision and presser on Thursday followed by Friday’s Non Farm Payrolls which will be a critical data point for those watching the data for the next phase of Dollar direction.

Technical  Commentary 

EURUSD Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish

While 1.09 supports intraday expect test of 1.1050, while offers at 1.1050 cap expect retest of last weeks lows.

Order Flow indicators; OBV sideways, Linear Regression and Psychology bearish pierce midpoints from below

Monitoring intraday price and Order Flow indicators on a test of 1.1050

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GBPUSD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish

While 1.53 supports expect test of 1.5550 from below failure at 1.53 opens 1.5050 next

Order Flow indicators; OBV sideways, Linear Regression and Psychology bearish

Monitoring intraday price action and Order Flow indicators on a test of 1.53 or 1.5550

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USDJPY: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish  – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bullish

While 123 supports intraday expect 125. Below 122 concerns near term bullish bias.

Order Flow indicators; OBV sideways, Linear Regression and Psychology bullish but stalling

Monitoring intraday price action and Order Flow indicators on a test of 124.50 or 122

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EURJPY: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish.

Retesting the broken ascending trendline from below as this area rejects potential to retest 134 a break here sets retest of highs and potential 138 foray.

Daily Order Flow indicators; OBV sideways to down, Linear Regression and Psychology bullish

Monitoring intraday price action and Order Flow indicators on a retest of 133 or 137/138

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