Morning Report: USD Prints 12 Year Highs

KEY DATA RELEASES TODAY (GMT) :

1015 EUR ECOFIN Meetings
1400 USD JOLTS Job Openings exp 5.04M v 5.03M

OVERNIGHT:

The DXY has made yet another new high at 98.196, overnight the highest level since 2003 USD longs added to positions supported by hawkish comments from Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher reiterating his stance on the importance of a FED hike in a speech overnight that echoed an interview he gave to MNI last week.

USDJPY took out barrier option at 121.50 propelled by Fed Fisher’s hawkish remarks overnight, USDJPY posted high of 121.625. Reports of algorithmic funds selling into the USD move Tokyo banks are cautious of the possibility that Japanese politicians may warn about JPY depreciation hurting economy especially with local elections looming.

EURUSD tests bids at 1.0800 reported selling by real money accounts into the late Asian morning, took out 1.0800. Bids are reported scattered all the way to 1.0750. Very little mentioned about offers but buy stop orders are reported gathering atop 1.0910. The Greece decision is again delayed to Wednesday, EuroGroup President Dijsselbloem warned that there is no more time to be wasted, no disbursement to Greece if there is NO agreement. Then we had the Greek defence minister saying that if the Eurozone allowed Greece to go bust it would give EU travel papers to illegal immigrants crossing its borders, especially the Jihadists all of which maintained downside pressure on the EURUSD. We are now approaching major support at 1.0762, the September 2003 low. This was the last significant low print before an ensuing 20% rally… clearly conditions are completely different this time around but it still adds weight to that level.

GBPUSD was well bid against the dollar, rallying to 1.5136 high from 1.5023 low, whereas against the euro, the pair hit a seven-year high at 1.3922, theme remains the same In contrast to the QE policy by ECB, traders are expecting that BOE will have interest rate rise the first quarter next year.

There was disappointing confidence numbers from Australia overnight, with consumer confidence down 2% and business confidence falling to 0 from 3 prior. AUDUSD now leaning against the 2015 lows at 0.7627. A break through here would leave us scrambling for some technical support, with majors level absent until we get down onto a 72 handle.

PRICE ACTION OVERVIEW:

EUR: While 1.0980 caps upside target 1.0760
GBP: While 1.5160 contains upside reaction, targeting 1.49
JPY:  While 120.50 supports target 124.00
CAD: While 1.2550 supports 1.28 next upside objective ahead of key 1.30
AUD: While .7860 contains, downtrend to resume targeting .75 and .72 beyond

KEY TRADES:

FX PairShort TermPosition/DateEntry LevelTargetStopComments
EURUSDBearish Await new signal
GBPUSDBearishAwait new signal
USDJPYBullish Await new signal
USDCADBullishAwait new signal
AUDUSDBearish Sell/02 Mar .7760 Open.7760

ANALYSIS:

EURUSD Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish  – Medium Term (1-3 WeeksBearish

  • While 1.0980 caps upside pressure remains on the downside, with 1.0760 2003 low the next downside objective.
  • Order Flow indicators; OBV at lows, Linear Regression and Psychology bearish, but ticking up form depressed levels to attempt midpoint tests from below
  • Monitoring price action and Order Flow below 1.09/0980 to reset short positions targeting 1.0760 next

eu2015-03-10 07_29_49-

GBPUSD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 WeeksBearish

  • While 1.5160/80 caps upside 1.50 next downside objective a break here will set up a retest of the year to date lows, only above 1.5260/80 suggests broader correction.
  • Order Flow indicators; OBV at lows, Linear Regression and Psychology bearish
  • Monitoring price and Order Flow below 1.5160/80 to reset short positions

GU2015-03-10 07_34_45-

USDJPY: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish  – Medium Term (1-3 WeeksBullish

  • 120.40/50 to act as primary support only below 119.80 concerns immediate bullish view, a close above 2014 highs target 124 as next upside objective, caution on potential double top on this first retest of highs.
  • Order Flow indicators; OBV continues ticking up from consolidation, Linear Regression and Psychology bullish
  • Monitoring price action and Order Flow indicators on retest of 120.00/120.50 to set longs targeting 124

UJ2015-03-10 07_38_24-

USDCAD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish  – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bullish

  • While 1.2550 area contains downside expects a test and break of 1.2665 with 1.28 the next upside objective, only below 1.2350 concerns upside bias
  • Daily Order Flow indicators; OBV consolidating at highs, Linear Regression and Psychology bullish
  • Monitoring price action and Order Flow indicators to set long positions targeting 1.30

UC2015-03-10 08_46_11-

AUDUSDShort Term (1-3 Days): Bearish  – Medium Term (1-3 WeeksBearish

  • While .7860 caps corrective upside expect break of .77 targeting .75 next, above .79 suggests test of .8050/.8100 before lower
  • Order Flow indicators; OBV at lows, Linear Regression and Psychology bearish
  • Risk free shorts in play

AU2015-03-10 08_49_22-

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