Morning Report: USDJPY Fresh 2014 Highs

Key Data Releases Today

1230GMT – USD NFIB Small Business Optimisim exp 95.6 v 95.3


Overview:

USDJPY led strength saw the USD trade firmer overnight as Abe suggests suspension of Sales Tax. Having traded both sides of 114.65-115.00 in the early part of the Asian session, USDJPY finally took out the offers at 115.00 area, tripping stops above, to print fresh 2014 highs. AUDUSD rotated between 0.8615-0.8650 with good NAB data helping the push to the highs before general USD strength, supported by rising US yields, erased those gains. Finally, worth keeping an eye on EURCHF as it continues to trades close to the SNB floor. Having tested a two-year low yesterday of 1.2021 it was confined to a 1.2025-31 range overnight.

Looking ahead, we have a quiet session in store with North America out for Veterans Day. The highlight in Europe being Swedish CPI and the Riksbank minutes.

EUR struggles to regain range lows.
CAD profit taking pull back quickly finds support.
GBP rejected on range low recapture attempt.
JPY new 2014 lows as Abe suggests suspension of Sales tax.
AUD struggle to trade back into lower end of its range.

Key Trades:

EURUSD: Bearish – Revised (setting spec shorts on break of yesterdays lows)
USDCAD: Bullish – Revised (setting spec longs on break of yesterdays highs)
GBPUSD: Bearish – Revised (trailing stops on spec shorts triggered)
USDJPY: Bullish – No Change (trailing stops triggered)
AUDUSD: Bearish – Revised (setting spec shorts on break of yesterdays lows)

Analysis:

EURUSD: Bearish – No Change

  • Rejection candle at range retest from below
  • Order Flow indicators recovering from very bearish levels, Linear
  • Regression and Psychology test mid points, pulling back
  • Broken support now resistance, setting spec shorts on follow through from yesterdays rejection candle

EURO

USDCAD: Bullish – Revised

  • USD profit taking, price retreats from fresh 2014 highs, but finds support
  • Daily Order Flow indicators are pulling back from very bullish levels to retest mid points from above
  • Monitoring trendline support and Order Flow indicators to signal bullish trend resumption
  • Strong bullish candle at previous range high support zone, will set spec longs on follow through

loonie
GBPUSD: Bearish – Revised

  • Contracting range break lower reversed sharply, but finding resistance on retest
  • Trailing stops on shorts triggered to secure profits
  • Order Flow indicators correct from bearish level, tick up to retest mid points monitoring rejection of the mid point for trend continuation
  • Rejection candle yesterday will set spec shorts on follow through from yesterdays rejection candle

CABLE
USDJPY: Bullish – No Change

  • Price retreats from year to date highs but finds strong support and prints new 2014 highs
  • Order Flow indicators supported at mid point retest post profit taking cycle
  • Trailing stops triggered to secure significant profits on longs

yen
AUDUSD: Bearish – Revised

  • Snap back into range monitoring price action for confirmation
  • Order Flow indicators testing and rejected at midpoints
  • Bearish rejection candle yesterday
  • Setting spec shorts on follow through from yesterdays rejection candle

aussie

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