The ever important NFP figures are out shortly and with market anticipation of a Fed lift-off reaching fever pitch, today’s release is even more important.Given the recent strength in employment prints, some analysts are looking for a high number, indeed the average of the last five figures sits atop 300k
300k And Over
– A figure of this magnitude would push a potential June rate hike into question with the Fed likely gaining the confidence it needs to remove the much disputed “patient” from it’s March statement. If we see a high print, look to sell EURUSD on a break of 1.0900
150k – 200k
– A disappointment of this scale whilst concerning given the recent strong of strength seen out of employment prints, shouldn’t push rate hike expectations too much further out from the already priced in September lift off. However, we could see the FOMC confirm that their stance on the labour market might shift which would weaken Dollar prospects.
Given the BoE’s relative hawkishness, a figure in this band should setup Long GBPUSD opportunities
150k Or Worse
– A print this low regardless of weather induced effects could seriously damage expectations of a June hike and also threaten the Fed’s will to remove “patient” from it’s March statement.
The BoC kept rates unchanged at it’s latest rate setting meeting and alongside indicating an improvement in it’s inflation outlook the BoC also hinted that monetary policy might not need any further easing. As such, a figure this disappointing should see USDCAD head lower in the short term creating scope for decent USDCAD shorts.