The Forex Week In Review

The Week That Was

Following the huge moves we had seen recently, the Forex week began quietly with plenty of risk ahead. The RBA rate decision was met with an unexpected move as the Aussie surged on a cut of 25bps, wrongfooting alot of players. The UK election heralded an unexpected result too as the Conservative party were returned to parliament undisputed and the GBP traded sharply higher. Finally we had the headline risk of the week, the NFP print which saw a slight miss, not enough to cause much of a response. Majors remain rangebound against recent levels but with plenty of risk ahead next week with very important economic data we should see some strong action.

Overview

  • USD Another negative week for the Greenback which suffered widespread losses against the majors once again. USD bulls had hoped to regain some positive momentum but a slight miss in the NFPs this week dampened the fire once again with the March revision of job growth to 85k seeing the worst monthly figure since June 2012.
  • EUR Another positive week for the single currency which broke higher through the April high to challenge the 1.14 handle. Still benefitting from the unwinding of USD long Euro short positioning, the muted NFP number keeps EUR bulls in the drivers seat for now.
  • GBP Another big week the UK currency which began in the shadow of uncertainity created by the looming UK election. However, the British Conservative party were returned to parliament and this was percieved as widely bullish by market participants, sending the GBP back up to April highs where it si currently stalled
  • JPY a choppy week for the Japanese Yen which saw initial strength early in the weekly, but has mostly conceded gains now and is still down sharply against EUR & GBP. BoJ lowered it’s inflation outlook signalling the need for more stimulus which will weigh on the currency.
  • AUD Ends the week just off April’s high print following the Aussies surge on the back of an RBA rate cut of 25bps. Unemployment rate came in slightly higher than expected and flows remain choppy. Carry demand should continue to support AUD in the near term.
  • CAD A strong start to the week ultimately fell flat with USDCAD remaining firmly range bound for now. Unemployment rate came in inline but net change in employment missed. Concerns about the Oil price induced damage to the Canadian economy persist and should see CAD lower.

Key Views

EURUSD Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish
GBPUSD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish
USDJPY: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bullish
AUDUSD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish
USDCAD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bullish

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