The Week Ahead: Trading Outlook

Key Events This Week: April 27th- May 1st

GBP: GDP Tuesday
EUR: German CPI Wednesday, German Unemp Thursday, Eurozone CPI
USD: Consumer Confidence Tuesday, GDP Wednesday, FOMC Rate Decision, Personal Consumption Expenditure Thursday, ISM Manufacturing Friday
NZD: RBNZ Rate Decision Wednesday
JPY: CPI Friday
CAD: GDP Thursday

Overview.

USD Index Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral Medium Trerm (1-3 Weeks) Bullish

Data continues to disappoint this afternoons durable goods data was no exception, most feel that the current round of weakness in US economic numbers will give the FOMC the cover they need to to stand pat on a move ahead of Septemeber. Focus moves to this weeks raft of data and USD bulls will be looking for a rebound in economic sentiment to reposition on the long side.

EURUSD Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish

Monetary and political matters continue to dominate the EUR trade, the main focus as we closed out the week was the looming Greek debt deadline although it appears another fudged deal will be hammered out last minute to delay any real resolution. It is likely that we could see a further relief bounce on such news before ECB policy once again takes centre stage. Key German data will be the EUR focus this week along with EuroZone CPI.

USDJPY: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bullish

Ranges rule the roost int he JPY complex, most participants are reluctant to take any meaningful risk on board ahead of next weeks crucial BOJ. Most market players seem to sense that we are likely to get any significant further easing measures from next weeks meeting and CFTC data of late has reflected the lack of appetite to short JPY at current levels.

GBPUSD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish

Continues to grind out new gains clearing 150 and 1.51 this week squeezing late shorts out of poorly placed positions. Yesterdays BOE minutes were taken hawkishly and propelled cable through some key levels. The key concern now is regarding short term volatility as we head into the major political headline risk of the UK General Election at the beginning of May, it is likely we will witness some position adjustment as we head into the polling period.

AUDUSD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish

RBA minutes were AUD supportive as the Bank held off a rate cut, however the reluctance move in April has many market players pricing in a very high probability of a cut in May. CPI data also came in, in line as such the AUD has remained bid this week but many are cautious regarding any meaningful gains as concerns regarding China growth data continue to cloud the trading outlook for the AUD.

USDCAD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bullish

Data has been supportive for the CAD in recent weeks coupled with a stabilisation in Oil prices these two factors have led the BOC to sound less doveish in recent communications. GDP data on Thursday is the headline release for the Canadian currency, which will be closely watched to see just how the drop in oil prices affected the country’s economy.

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