UK GDP Preview: Economy Back On Track

UK’s QoQ and YoY GDP numbers will be announced on Tuesday, April 29, 2014 at 9:30 AM GMT. QoQ GDP is forecasted to be 0.9% which is an increase from last quarter’s 0.7% figure. YoY GDP is forecasted to be 3.2% which has also increased from last year’s figure of 2.7%. Below are the charts for QoQ and YoY GDP respectively.

QoQ Chart YoY ChartQuarterly figures have almost always been positive since 2010 and the QoQ figures chart shows a quick recovery from the 2008 recession which is echoed in the yearly figures chart. YoY figures have constantly been positive since 2010 and seem to be increasing from 2012’s inactive sub 1% growth rates. If Tuesday’s YoY figure is realized, it will be the highest since post recession levels.

UK GDP

GDP Chart

UK GDP reached its highest level right before the 2008 recession and seems to have stabilized (at least for the past two years). Given an optimistic outlook for their Retail Sales, GDP is likely to increase.

UK GDP Constant Prices

Constant Prices Chart

GDP Constant Prices is a measure that best demonstrates volume levels as it eliminates inflation effects by using prices in the base period. This chart shows the increase in volume since the 2008 recession. The first bar (at January 2008) is the highest level reached which goes to show that volume seems to have almost recovered from the recent recession.

Given this quarter’s forecasts I would say that the UK economy weathered the recession pretty well and seems to be back on track to generating income through natural growth.