Week Ahead: Trading Outlook

Key Events This Week: November 2nd –  November 6th

Mon: GBP – Manufacturing PMI, USD – ISM Manufacturing
Tue: AUD – RBA Rate decision,Trade Balance & Retail Sales, NZD – Unemployment rate,
Wed: JPY – Consumer Confidence, CNY – Caixin PMIs, GBP – Service PMI, USD – ISM Non Manufacturing & ADP Employment Change
Thu: EUR – EZ Retail PMI,Retail Sales & EC Economic Forecasts, GBP – BOE Rate Decision, Asset Purchase Target & Inflation Report
Fri: GBP – Industrial Production, Trade Balance, USD – Unemployment Rate & Non -Farm Payrolls, CAD – Unemployment Rate

Overview

  • USD The Dollar strengthened sharply on the release of the October FOMC statement only to concede gains following the lacklustre 3Q GDP print which came in below expectations at 1.5% with PCE data similarly disappointing at 1.3% against expectations of 1.4%, capping a week of poor data flow for the US with consumer confidence falling below expectations also. Attention this week will be mainly on the unemployment rate and October NFP’s on Friday, marking the first of three jobs reports between now and the December FOMC with the USD trading outlook heavily data dependent, as ever.
  • EUR The single currency continued its post-ECB slide last week, driven lower by the market’s reaction to the October FOMC meeting. German unemployment rate remained unchanged this month at 6.4% whilst German CPI made its way our of negative territory to print 0% as did EuroZone CPI which was also bolstered by a beat in core CPI at 1.0% against expectations of 0.9%. USD weakness into the end of the week saw EUR recovering lost ground to end the week around the middle of its range.Lack of Tier One domestic data this week will leave EUR trading mainly off USD flows.
  • GBP Sterling was weaker following the release of 3Q GDP which undershot expectations of 2.4% to print 2.3%. Data weakness extended throughout last week with Mortgage Approvals dropping sharply alongside CBI reported sales, though the UK currency was able to recover higher levels due to USD weakness. Attention this week will be on the BOE’s “Super-Thursday” with traders keen to hear the BOE’s latest economic assessment following the Fed’s recent October statement which markets saw as increasing the likelihood of a December lift-off.
  • JPY Main focus last week was the BOJ’s October meeting which saw investor expectations heavily skewed towards further easing. The meeting however saw the BOJ refrain from further easing though growth forecasts were lowered alongside the pushing out of the Bank’s inflation target into the latter half of fiscal 2016. Main focus this week will be on the BOJ meeting minutes release for the October 6th-7th meeting.
  • AUD The Australian Dollar traded sharply lower  last week with 3Q CPI accelerating the decline as the figure came in below expectations and previous of 0.7% at 0.5%, fuelling speculation of further RBA easing at their upcoming meeting on Tuesday. We also have Australian trade balance and retail sales figures.
  • CAD The Canadian Dollar managed to stem recent losses against the Dollar last week recovering amidst US data weakness. The mid-week USD spike was contained by weak US GDP though ultimately CAD itself was contained on Friday by the release of weaker than expected domestic GDP. Domestic focus this week will be on the release of Canadian unemployment on Friday.
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