New York Forex Report: FX Quite Into Month End

New York Forex Report: FX Quite Into Month End

New York Forex Report: G10 currencies are quiet heading into month end and the USD is strengthening modestly. The distribution of FX returns has somewhat of a risk off feel, and the tone is at odds with the widespread gains in global equity indices and commodities including copper and iron ore. JPY is outperforming, while growth sensitive commodity currencies are soft with notable weakness in NZD and CAD. Gold is flat, and developed country bond yields are steady. Monday’s U.S. releases are limited to the Chicago PMI, pending home sales, and the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index. There are no scheduled Fed speakers. EUR is quiet trading flat from Friday’s close with a remarkably muted response to the release of better than expected inflation data for the euro area. Headline CPI was in line with expectations at 1.3% YoY while core surprised to the upside with a rise back to 1.2% YoY matching recent multi-year highs

USD Data flow over the weekend came out mostly on the softer side. Though 2Q US GDP showed a pick-up from 1Q as a result of quicker gains in consumption and investment, the reading was a tad softer than expected and most importantly, this positive print was overshadowed by downward revisions to 1Q GDP (from 1.4% to 1.2%) and the whole series of readings in 2014-2016 GDP. The softer growth backdrop increased concerns over the likelihood of the Fed in further policy tightening in the near term

EUR Sentiment was mixed in the Eurozone in July; survey of economic confidence showed that respondents were a tad upbeat, edging the index higher to 111.2 in Jul from 111.1 in Jun. The business climate indicator index however, fell to 1.05 in Jul from 1.16 previously, and a softer decline was expected. Consumer confidence index remained in negative territory; the final Jul reading was unchanged at -1.7, and worsened from -1.3 in Jun as respondents were less optimistic about savings and future employment.

GBP The Bank of England will announce its latest interest rate decision on Thursday. Apart from announcing its latest decision on interest rates, the bank will also publish the latest inflation report whilst Governor Carney will hold a press conference. The vote split and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will be an important focus, especially given the divergence of views on the committee.

JPY Japanese industrial production rose in June, preliminary government data showed earlier, in a sign that an inconsistent manufacturing sector was regaining momentum. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry reported a 1.6% pickup in industrial output last month, matching a median estimate of analysts. Measured year-on-year, industrial production rose 4.9%.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: 1-3 Day View – As 1.1650 supports near term bulls target 1.1860/80 the intraday hurdle sited at 1.1755 , only a daily close below 1.1480 concerns the near term bullish bias setting a top for a test of 1.1370

1-3 Week View – While 1.0830 supports the weekly close over 1.1450 sets upside focus on 1.1876. Weekly close below 1.08 neutralises bullish objectives.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: 1-3 Day View – Breach of 1.3080 resets focus on pivotal 1.3238, a daily closing breach of 1.2810 concerns the medium term bullish bias. Near term support is sited at 1.3040/20 upside hurdle 1.3160

1-3 Week View – The weekly close above 1.3045 targets the broader symmetry swing objective sited at 1.3238 only a close back below 1.28 would jeopardise the bullish advance
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: 1-3 Day View – The breach of 112.10 delaying the bullish target at 115.50 and opening a move back towards 108.93, 111.05 is the immediate upside hurdle with 110.30 the near term support.

1-3 Week View – As 108.40 equidistant swing support survives on a weekly closing basis bulls will look for a grind higher to retest 115, a close below 108 negates the broader bullish theme and opens the psychological 100 magnet
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: 1-3 Day View – 128 provides platform for a move through 130.70/80 en-route to 133.36, below 129.40/20 resets 130/128 range trade

1-3 Week View – The weekly close above 118.50 arrested the immediate downside risk, 129.44 upside objective achieves as 128 supports bulls look for a move to test 133.36 as the broader upside objective.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

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