New York Forex Report: All Eyes On The NFPs

New York Forex Report: Sticky trading over the European morning as markets range ahead of key data later today.  Attention over the US session will be on today’s headline event; US Non Farm payrolls. Markets are expecting a slightly slower but still firm 200k increase with an unchanged unemployment rate of 5.0%, and average hourly earnings at 0.2%.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: EURUSD remained firmly range-bound over early European trading as traders await key US data with NFPs and Unemployment rate due at 1330GMT.

Technical: While offers at 1.0950 contain upside attempts expect rotation south to test bids at 1.08while this area supports expect a second corrective leg to target 1.1050, a breach of 1.0750 resets bearish momentum and targets 1.0650 next

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.08 stops below. Offers 1.0950 Stops above.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

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GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: GBP was weaker over the European morning as the latest UK trade balance data showed a wider deficit than expected, though narrower than the previous figure.

Technical:  While 1.4660 caps intraday upside expect a drift lower to retest bids at 1.4590 as this area finds support expect a second leg of corrective action to test 1.47, failure at 1.4560 opens 1.45 next.

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.4550 stops below. Offers 1.47 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short from 1.48 for 1.45, risk free position.

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USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: USDJPY range bound ahead of NFPs.  Expectations for further BOJ easing are growing as safe-haven demand continues to strengthen JPY.

Technical:  While 119 caps intraday upside attempts expect a sustained breach of 117.50 en route to test 116.35 as the next downside objective.

Interbank Flows: Bids 117.50 stops below. Offers 119 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

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EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: EURJPY retraced from yesterday’s session highs over early European trading today as markets adjust

Technical:  While 129.50 caps intraday upside reactions, expect a grind lower to retest Thursdays lows at 126.70’s a failure here opens a test of bids at 126.

Interbank Flows: Bids 126.50 stops below. Offers 129.50 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

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AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: AUD continued lower over early European trading today as concerns over the slowdown in China keep risk appetite and commodity prices pressured.

Technical: While .71 caps intraday upside expect a retest of yesterdays lows failure here opens .6930 next. Only a breach of .72 eases immediate downside pressure.

Interbank Flows: Bids .6950 stops below. Offers .71 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

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USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Fundamental: USDCAD was mildly higher over early European trading today as Oil prices continued to weaken. Alongside key US employment data today we also have the Canadian unemployment rate expected to remain unchanged at 7.1%

Technical: Bulls have the ball while 1.38 supports, expect a grind higher to test stops above 1.42 while 1.40 caps intraday downside.

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.40 stops below. Offers 1.42 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

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