New York Forex Report: Markets Muted Ahead Of NFP’s

New York Forex Report: Markets Muted Ahead Of NFP

New York Forex Report: Markets are muted ahead of the NFP release. Nonfarm payroll gains will be closely watched today although as highlighted before, the Fed policy decision has increasingly shifted away from job data (which is expecded to affirm steady job prospects in the US) to external risks and inflation prospects

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: EUR climbed about 4.7 percent last quarter to 1.1378 versus the dollar, the biggest rise since March 2011, while the pair peaked at 1.1411 overnight, the highest since 15 October. The euro strengthened in the first quarter by the most in five years, defying convention as the European Central Bank (ECB) bolstered its monetary stimulus, a step that tends to debase a currency. The ECB begins expanded monthly bond purchases to 80 billion euros from 60 billion euros

Technical: The close over 1.1220 opens a move to test the symmetry swing objective at 1.1420, expect intraday support to come in at the aforementioned 1.1220.

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.1250 stops below. Offers 1.1450 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: GBP weakened for a second day against the euro as data showed Britain’s current-account deficit widened in the fourth quarter more than forecasts . The current-account deficit widened to a record and recent surveys suggest domestic resilience may be fading amid concern that the UK might vote to quit the European Union in the 23 June referendum. The British economy ended 2015 with more momentum than previously estimated. GDP rose 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter..

Technical: 1.4050 pivotal support provides a platform for technical rebound to retest the topside of the broader 1.45/1.40 range, intraday support sited at 1.4280. A failure to hold 1.4050 opens a retest of year to date lows at 1.38 ahead of 1.37 weekly swing objective.

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.4050 stops below. Offers 1.45 stops above.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: JPY n strengthened against the dollar this morning as Japan stocks dropped after release of the worse-than-expected Tankan index of confidence among large manufacturers. Sentiment among Japan’s large manufacturers fell to the lowest level since mid-2013 with a stronger yen posing risks to company profits, undermining efforts to spur recovery in the world’s third-largest economy.

Technical: Continue to play the broader range of 110/114 with 112 the pivot to lean against intraday, a breach of the range is required to help define the next directional play

Interbank Flows: Bids 110.50 offers below. Offers 114 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: The Tankan index of confidence among large manufacturers printed at 6 in March, declining from 12 three months ago

Technical: While 126.40 bids support intraday expect a test of symmetry resistance at 128.15 as the immediate corrective objective. Failure at 124.50 suggests false upside break and opens retest of 123.

Interbank Flows: Bids 110.50 offers below. Offers 114 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Fundamental: AUD stood near nine-month peaks yesterday, though their explosive monthly gains were unlikely to be greeted by the central bank. The AUDUSD sat at 0.7654, popped above 77 cents on Wednesday for the first time since June. If the boost sustained, it would be the largest increase since late 2011. Investors believe the lift of the Australian dollar could test the patience of the RBA which will hold its policy review on 5 April

Technical: Only a close below .7550 threatens the near term bullish bias, while this level supports intraday expect a grind higher to test .7770

Interbank Flows: Bids .7550 stops below. Offers .7750 stops above.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: CAD weakened slightly against the USD, closed low even strong domestic figures helped drive the currency to a five-month high in short moment. Month-end buying of US dollars was accompanied by position adjustments ahead of tonight US employment report. Canada’s economy grew by a much larger-than-expected 0.6 percent in January, it was the fourth straight monthly gain and the biggest since July 2013.

Technical: Bears have the ball while 1.3160 contains upside reactions expect a retest of recent lows in the 1.2920’s to set a potential double bottom base, a failure of buyer participation here opens a run down to test structural support at 1.2830

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.2900 stops below. Offers 1.3150 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

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