New York Forex Report: US PCE Up Next

New York Forex Report: US PCE Up Next

New York Forex Report: Following Yellen’s hawkish comments that a rate hike in the US in the coming months will be appropriate given that economic data continue to point to recovery of the US economy, St Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Monday global markets appear to be well prepared for a rate hike in the summer. Time of the move however was not specified but the string of comments from top officials indicates that a policy move may happen as soon as June. Traders now turn their attention to the April PCE data due at 1330GMT1 today which is used by the Fed as a key gauge for inflation.

FX Majors: A slew of better than expected data out of the EuroZone over the European morning today with German Retail Sales printing strongly in April and the German Unemployment rate ticking down to 6.1% from 6.2% previous. Final EuroZone CPI came in unrevised. Traders now look ahead to the ECB rate decision on Thursday.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Bears target symmetry support at 1.1065, 1.1240 remains resistance level only over 1.13 eases immediate downside bias
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: Expect a test of 1.4770. Only a failure at 1.4530/50 support threatens near term bullish bias.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Testing trend resistance at 111.30 as this area contains the upside correction expect a rotation back towards 108.40. A close over 112 targets 113.14 as the next upside hurdle, a close above this level negates medium term bearish bias.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Bears now target weekly symmetry objective at 120.60. Intraday resistance at 124.20 only a close above 126.80 eases immediate downside pressure
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

Commodities FX: The key event for crude oil markets this week will be the upcoming OPEC ordinary meeting in Vienna, Austria, on 2 June and although most analysts expect no action to be taken to address the ample global oil supplies situation, markets participants are still remaining cautious. AUD Australia new home sales dropped 4.7% MoM in April, reversing the 8.9% MoM climb in March. Home sales declined in most regions, most prominently in Western Australia CAD dipped against the broadly stronger USD as traders expected for a potential increase in US interest rates soon, but some losses were pared as oil turned higher. Australian construction data overnight was stronger than expected as was private sector net credit. Traders now await upcoming Australian GDP data.

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: 7240/60 support now resistance as bears target .7050 as the next downside objective. Only a close over .7400 eases immediate downside pressure.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: While 1.2940 symmetry swing supports bulls target offers at 1.3210 as the next upside extension target. Only a close below 1.2760 eases immediate bullish pressure
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

XAUUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish