The Conference Board will announce its Consumer Confidence Index figure on Tuesday, July 29, 2014 at 2:00 PM GMT. This will be the major announcement for Tuesday along with a talk by MPC member Ben Broadbent. Information related to the index is provided below.
|CB Consumer Confidence Index||85.3||85.2||83.5|
The index essentially provides a preview of current business conditions and an outlook for future business conditions and consumer attitudes and their prospective purchases which it ties in to demographics. It is similar to retail sales but can be thought of as a precursor as it tries to forecast while retail sales is empirical. Though the index dipped in the second half of 2013 (similar to Pending Home Sales), tomorrows figure is estimated to be the highest yet at 85.3. This gives a favourable view on the US consumer market especially with last month’s jump over its forecast, though we should wait for its revision.
The key pairs related to the CB Consumer Confidence Index are the EURUSD and the GBPUSD.
The EURUSD caught a break after last week’s sell off, with cooler minds we saw the pair slightly pick up today even though Pending Home Sales was below forecasts. Right now we`re seeing the pair in a major sell off period as we observe the US economy bounce back, this week is packed with key news announcements which will provide a lot of volatility. For tomorrow we should be looking towards the index as an indicator for how we will set up for the other announcements coming in later this week. Though the EURUSD has found support its rally has been met with resistance, these key levels are around 1.34263 and 1.34413 respectively; a break of any of these levels should have enough momentum to move to the next support/resistance.
The GBPUSD found support last Friday after unpopular retail sales and expected GDP figures from the UK couldn’t take the pair any lower. Today we saw the pair unsuccessfully try to break a known long term support/resistance level and dip back down. Current support and resistance levels are 1.69781 and 1.69952 respectively so look to enter trades on breaks of either. As mentioned above, tomorrow’s announcement may not be met with much volatility as the market may be looking towards other key announcements coming later in the week.