New York Forex Report: European Holidays See Market Moves Muted

New York Forex Report: European Holidays See Market Moves Muted

New York Forex Report: European holidays have seen reduced participation and increased range trade across FX majors this morning. The main catalyst as we head into the North American session is US Empire manufacturing data NAHB housing data, both sets of data will give a new read on August sentiment as traders continue to closely track US data hoping to garner further insight into likely glide path for FED rate moves into the back end of the year. Cable continues to take the brunt of bearish Brexit sentiment as it picks up from where is left off last week with an offered tone and shallow bounces being sold.Euro is rotating just above Fridays close as traders wait to position ahead of Thursday’s ECB minutes release.

FX Majors: EUR The Eurozone grew 0.3% QOQ in 2Q, slowing down from 0.6% QOQ pace in 1Q as concerns over Brexit strengthened. The second estimate from Eurostat showed that growth momentum in France, Italy and Germany took a downturn last quarter. On a second report, industrial production turned positive in June (+0.6% MOM vs May: -1.2% MOM), driven by the surge in durable consumer and capital goods output. GBP UK, construction output slipped 0.9% MOM in June narrowing from the 2.1% MOM decline in May. JPY Q2 consumer spending lacked strength, exports weaken, government stimulus package to help address this, structural reforms needed too, government and BoJ working together to defeat deflation according to Japan Finance Minister Aso, in comments reported by Reuters.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Target 1.1330. Failure below 1.1030 opens 1.0950 on the downside.Near term support is sited at 1.11
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: 1.2950 equidistant swing objective achieved and continues to attracts profit taking. 1.31 the immediate upside hurdle ahead of pivotal 1.3160.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: The close below 103 will see bears target a retest of cycle lows below 100. Near term resistance is sited at 102.80, over 102.90 targets 103.50 next.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: The breach of 113 opens 110.80 as the next downside objective. Near term resistance is sited at 114.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

Commodities FX: GOLD has stabilised overnight after retreating from last weeks highs erasing gains as money flowed into riskier assets. Oil prices have continues to edge higher after gaining more than 10% this month as speculation continues to increase about potential producer action to support prices in an oversupplied market. AUD drifted off recent highs last Friday after the market focused on the possibility of higher US interest rates this year. Despite the Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut in early August, the Aussie still posted solid weekly gains following the RBA meeting. CAD strengthened Friday as the oil prices were picked up. The USDCAD touched a low of 1.2920 although the pair has recovered a little bit overnight.

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: The close over .77 shifts attention to broader range resistance sited at .7830, near term support is now sited at .7640.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Failure below 1.2940 opens 1.2860 as the next downside objective. Near term resistance is sited at 1.30.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

XAUUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: Bulls target 1391 as the next upside objective, near term support is sited at 1330. Below 1300 opens 1270.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USOIL
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: AB=CD equidistant swing objective completes at 45.43 expect expect prices to pause at this level. Near term support is sited at 43.30/60
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines