Institutional Insights: Barcalys FX Thoughts For The Week Ahead

Hawks on the loose - The USD’s bounce proved short-lived, as ECB rate expectations re-priced following the hawkish December minutes. We forecast medium EURUSD appreciation and see upside risks to our Q1 forecasts as markets frontload tightening expectations. The BoJ, too, is expected to move toward normalization in Q3, through changing its YCC target sector from 10y to 5y, at 0%, supporting JPY appreciation...
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Institutional Insights: Morgan Stanley FX Daily

Hawkish Rinban, dovish Fed: With the BoJ cutting the size of its 10-25-year maturity Rinban operation, the focus has returned to the performance of global bond markets and their impact on risk appetite. Tactical risk indicators warn that a short-term setback may be in the making, which could see JPY crosses coming under selling pressure. GBPJPY shorts should offer the best protection for a long risk portfolio. USDJPY needs to break below ...
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Institutional Insights: Barcalys FX Thoughts For The Week Ahead

The perils of following consensus: Volatility-adjusted weekly returns show that the performances of consensus trades are mixed in the first few weeks of the new year, and most tend to perform poorly from the fourth or fifth week onward. Our Global Macro Survey suggests that the USD and EUR are popular longs, whereas GBP is the most popular short. That said, CFTC data do not suggest that all of these consensus trades are currently heavily positioned. There appears to be substantial participation in EUR longs but less for the USD longs and GBP shorts...
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Institutional Insights: Citi FX Global Flow Report

Ahead of Policy Updates, Investors Long EUR & GBP and Short USD - With the FOMC and ECB meetings this week, we again focus on EUR and USD investor flows. Real money clients were dollar buyers post-NFP on Thursday but otherwise the EUR inflows, USD outflows trend that has lasted for weeks now continued...
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Institutional Insights: Barclays FX Thoughts For The Week Ahead

Thoughts for the Week Ahead - Hiking in the winter.The Fed is not the only central bank expected to hike its policy rate this week, We expect a number of other central banks, including the ECB and BoE, to remain on hold this week, but the BoE minutes and ECB forecasts will be scrutinised...
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Institutional Insights: Morgan Stanley FX Pulse

Institutional Insights provide our subscribers with access to premium Institutional research, giving insight to Institutional positioning and perspectives on market moves
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Institutional Insights: Barclays FX Thoughts For The Week Ahead

Trade for the week ahead – Short GBPJPY: We recommend fading extreme Brexit optimism ahead of PM May’s Monday meeting with EC President Juncker, given residual Irish border issues that may impede progress towards trade negotiations. The JPY is likely to benefit if our above-consensus Q3 GDP forecast materialises and if a broadening of Friday’s US equity sell-off prompts a demand for safe havens...
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