GBP Unemployment Rate

Wednesday’s UK monthly unemployment rate will be announced at 9:30AM GMT by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) along with the claimant count change.

This month’s unemployment rate is forecasted to remain unchanged at 7.2% while claimant count change is expected to be -25k. The following charts provide historical carts for each.

Unemployment Rate

Claimant Count Change

Claimant count change is the amount by which the unemployed members of the labour force increases or decreases. 2013 brought large decreases in unemployment numbers with continual decreases throughout every month. This could be due to unemployed people leaving the labour force or a result of them being employed during the month.

The unemployment rate has been trending downwards since early 2012 with a higher degree of variance in the last three months. Looking at the chart below, the long term unemployment rate suggests a movement towards a rate below 6% where it was before the 2008 recession if we assume a stable labour participation rate and increasing population (which seems to be the case).

Long Term Unemployment Rate

Employed Persons and Job Vacancies

Employed Persons

Job Vacancies

Using additional data to observe historical employed persons and job vacancies numbers we see an increasing trend in both. The employed persons chart determines that the second half of 2013 decreases in claimant count change was indeed due to members of the labour force being employed.

Job vacancies provides a nice outlook for job growth, in our case we see large increases in job vacancies. Coupling this with a decreasing unemployment rate and increasing employed persons we are likely to conclude that the employment aspect of the UK economy is growing.

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