Institutional Insights: Barcalys FX Thoughts For The Week Ahead

The perils of following consensus: Volatility-adjusted weekly returns show that the performances of consensus trades are mixed in the first few weeks of the new year, and most tend to perform poorly from the fourth or fifth week onward. Our Global Macro Survey suggests that the USD and EUR are popular longs, whereas GBP is the most popular short. That said, CFTC data do not suggest that all of these consensus trades are currently heavily positioned. There appears to be substantial participation in EUR longs but less for the USD longs and GBP shorts...
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