London Forex Report: All Eyes On NFP Print

London Forex Report: All Eyes On NFP Print

London Forex Report: Echoing earlier Fed speaks, another four Fed officials said they were open to considering an interest rate increase in June and reiterated that decision will still be data dependent and officials will continue to “closely monitor” global development before June’s meeting. US jobless claims increased to 274k last week from 257k following a rather disappointing ADP employment figure. Private sector employers only added 156k jobs in April (March: 194k), suggesting that April’s nonfarm payroll may be lower than consensus estimates. USD climbed on continued refuge demand. The USD Index jumped in early European and US sessions holding firm thereafter to close 0.65% higher at 93.78

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Fundamental: USD climbed against the EUR, extending its run of gains to three days as traders awaiting today’s US Non-Farm Payrolls which will give traders a better idea of whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in June. EURUSD extended its pullback from an eight month peak of 1.1615 struck on Tuesday and fell below 1.1400 to hit a one week low of 1.1384 yesterday.

Technical: EUR bulls back under pressure with the failure at 1.1450, the next support level to be tested will be the symmetry support at 1.1368 failure here opens a return to retest 1.1240 support,
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Fundamental: GBPUSD moved up to 1.4530 level during Asian session but the pair subsequently dropped back below 1.4500 handle to the daily low of 1.4441.The latest below-the-expectations PMI readings have been the key factor that dragged the pair lower by more than 300-pips from Tuesday’s multi-month high of 1.4770

Technical: A failure at 1.4470 opens a deeper correction to 1.4280 next.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: USD held gains against JPY ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls. The dollar stood steady at 107.24, having gained for three days in a row to pull away from trough of 105.55. The Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe expressed his readiness to take appropriate action in the currency market to prevent any excessive rises in JPY, stating excessive volatility in the JPY was undesirable for Japan’s trade-reliant companies

Technical: 105.50 weekly swing objective achieved, 107.50 now becomes resistance a move through here opens a retest of 110 from below.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: ECB’s latest economic bulletin reiterated concerns of low inflationary pressure, expected to remain negative in the coming months before picking up during the second half of the year on base effects. ECB has started to expand monthly asset purchases to € 80 billion and “intended to run until the end of March 2017 or beyond if necessary”, hinting that additional stimulus is still on the table. In June, ECB will conduct its first operation of targeted longer term refinancing operations (TLTRO II).

Technical: Bears now target weekly symmetry objective at 120.60. Only a close over 126.80 eases immediate downside pressure. Intraday resistance now sited at 123.30/50
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Fundamental: AUDUSD drifted up from deep lows yesterday because of some upbeat domestic figures.The Australian dollar edged up to 0.7513, away from a seven-week trough of 0.7443 touched on Wednesday. The Aussie, which is still down more than two cents since Tuesday’s rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), received a modest boost after figures showed the country’s trade deficit narrowed sharply in March. Overnight comments from the RBA regarding further failure to achieve inflation objectives have seen the Aussie print fresh lows overnight.

Technical: The failure at .7450 opens .7380 as the next downside objective, this level is pivotal for the upside correction to be maintained.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: CAD was little changed against the USD as the benefit from a rally in oil was tempered by worries that economic growth could be weaker than expected. The slight gain was a reprieve after a more than 2% drop over the past two sessions as weaker-than-expected trade figures released this week has weighed on Canada’s growth outlook.

Technical: The close above 1.2750 negates near term bearish pressure and open a move to 1.30 as the next upside objective. 1.2740/60 should now act as support for further upside corrective action
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

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