London Forex Report: Trump ‘Lower For Longer’

London Forex Report: Trump ‘Lower For Longer’

London Forex Report: Markets clearly remained in risk-off mode, with a continued flight to safety. Geopolitical jitters aside, President Trump’s back down from his presidential campaign pledges from various fronts, China, Fed Chair Yellen appointment, USD and interest rate, spurred haven demand and a selloff in the greenback.

USD President Trump said he won’t brand China a currency manipulator as strong dollar would dampen economic growth. He added that he preferred “a low interest rate policy” and is open to renominating Fed Chair Janet Yellen for another term next year. On the data front, weekly mortgage applications rose 1.50% last week after a 1.60% weekly drop the week before..

EUR German wholesale prices were unchanged in the Mar month, posting a 4.7% gain in the year, down slightly from the 2.0% pace seen in February

GBP UK’s unemployment rate steadied at a over decade-low of 4.70% in February, indicating that job market remained resilient despite Brexit’s concerns. Other job prints were softer. Employers added 39k jobs to payroll, softening from the 92k pace in January. In addition, the number of jobless claims rose to 25.5k in March (February: revised to -6.1k), nudging up claimant count rate by 0.10% to 2.20%.

JPY is holding steady, trading at 2017 highs, and consolidating gains. In domestic data news, Japanese PPI was slightly weaker than expected on a monthly basis in March (0.2% MoM, 1.4% YoY, 0.3% and 1.4% respectively. expected). However, overall risk aversion remains to be the dominant tone supporting a strong JPY.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: 1-3 Day View – 1.0630 becomes support as this contains corrections 1.0760 becomes the next upside objective, below 1.06 resets focus on downside objectives 1.05 should be tested next, over 1.07 opens 1.0860.

1-3 Week View – While 1.10 contains corrective attempts higher focus remains on a retest of 1.03 ahead of 1.0118 extension objective form 2015/17 consolidation. Only over 1.14 sets upside focus on 1.1876
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: 1-3 Day View – quick move to symmetry swing resistance sited at 1.2544 achieved 1.2615 is the next upside objective in a return to the established 1.26/1.24 range

1-3 Week View – While below 1.2864 bears set sites on 1.10 as the broader downside objective, a weekly closing breach of 1.2660 will set up a move to test the weekly bearish line in the sand
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: 1-3 Day View 111.75 range support breached the daily close below here suggests downside range break and opens 108.43 equidistant swing objective to the downside, near term resistance is sited at 110.20, only over 112 stems selling pressure

1-3 Week View – as 110 weekly symmetry swing support survives on a weekly closing basis bulls will look for a grind higher to retest 115, a close below 108 which represents an equidistant swing negates the broader bullish theme.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Neutral

Technical: 1-3 Day View – pivotal trend line support at 116.57 has been breached and barring a snap back move today with a close over 117.60, 114.65 becomes the next downside objective Only over 120.50 arrests near term selling pressure.

1-3 Week View – As symmetry swing support sited at 117.69 survives on a weekly closing basis bulls will continue to target weekly symmetry swing resistance sited at 124.42, a weekly close above here would set a broader base for further upside.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

Posted in Forex Analysis, London Forex Report, tagged with on