London Forex Report: UK GDP Main Event In Holiday Trade

London Forex Report: UK GDP Main Event In Holiday Trade

London Forex Report: US was out for Thanksgiving holiday and focus was on the UK home loans, which showed a bigger than expected increase to 40851 in October. Despite the increase in the number of approved loans, there remains concerns, as evident in the softening increase in house prices, that the UK housing market is on a softer trajectory as Brexit negotiation dampened investors’ confidence. USD slipped against 70% of its G10 peers amid thin trading, while the USD Index dipped through Asian and European trades before steadying in US session, closing unchanged at 101.70

FX Majors: EUR with the US only half back today and volumes expected to be quite thin again, risk remains for another drop to retest the multi-year base from 2015 at 1.0463. GBP The number of home loans approved in the UK surged to 40.85k in October from 38.69k in September. While data in the past few months show that property market remains firm before negotiation of Brexit materialise, mortgage loans in the coming months may moderate as anticipation of Brexit’s negotiation dampens investors’ confidence. JPY Japan’s headline consumer price pressure turned positive for the first time in eight months, rising 0.10% YOY in October (September: – 0.50% YOY). The improvement in headline CPI was driven by the surge in food prices and entertainment spending. However, BOJ’s primary gauge of inflation dropped 0.40% YOY in October (September: -0.50% YOY), marking its eight straight monthly contractions. Leading index slipped to 100.3 in September from 100.9 in July, indicating that business outlook was subdued despite the improvement in the coincident index (September: 112.7 vs July: 111.9) which signalled better current economic conditions.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Bears have the ball the breach of 1.07 shifts bearish attention towards 2015 lows at 1.05. Near term resistance is sited at 1.07, medium term 1.0850 is a key upside hurdle which will need to be captured on a closing basis to stabilise the pair.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Bears target symmetry swing objective at 1.2270 as 1.2510 contains upside reactions, over 1.2520 opens a retest of 1.2580 ahead of 1.2670

Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: While 112.70 supports 115.59 becomes the next upside objective representing the 61.8% retracement of the 2015/16 decline. A breach of 111.07 would suggest a broader correction to the advance.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: The top side expansion through 117 opens 121 equidistant swing objective. A break back below 118.45 opens 116.20
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

Commodities FX: GOLD steadied on Thursday as the dollar retreated slightly from an almost 14-year high hit on positive US economic data, which increased expectations of the Fed increasing interest rates in December. OIL prices were little changed as uncertainty ahead of a planned OPEC-led crude production cut and thin liquidity during the US Thanksgiving holiday kept market participants from making big new bets. All eyes remain on the OPEC meeting on 30 November. AUD All has been fairly quiet for the Australian Dollar in this thinner holiday latter half of the week. However, we have seen the emergence of demand, reportedly on the back of higher copper and iron ore prices. CAD hasn’t exactly performed well in recent months, but it is worth noting the Loonie has outperformed the USD over the past week. It would seem that most of this out performance is a function of a healthy recovery in the price of OIL

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: .7092 AB=CD remains the downside objective. Near term resistance is sited at .7440 ahead of pivotal 7530.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: 1.3573 achieved expect some profit taking pullback is testing symmetry support at 1.3407, as this area contains the pullback 1.3620 becomes the next upside objective. Only a close below 1.3250 concerns the bullish bias.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

XAUUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: As 1200 contains upside reactions bears target 1150 as the next downside objective. A close over 1220 suggest broader correction to the recent decline..
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

USOIL
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Offers emerge at 48.92 equidistant swing resistance as this level contains upside reaction opportunity for a move to the downside targeting symmetry swing objective at 39.78. A breach of 49.00 opens a quick test of offers above 50.00 .
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

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