London Forex Report: BOE On Hold GBP Bid

London Forex Report: BOE On Hold GBP Bid

London Forex Report: Two Fed officials play down Brexit impact on US growth, indicating that rate hike is still on the table this year despite heightened uncertainty caused by global events. Data released ysterday was mostly second tier and affirmed that price pressure remained modest despite registering the largest one month jump in June. USD fell against for a third day as refuge demand extended its decline. The USD Index slipped 0.14% to 96.07 but not before bouncing back from a sharp tumble at the start US session.

FX Majors: EUR surged in tandem with Sterling right after the BoE surprisingly announced to keep their policy rates unchanged. EURUSD surged to an intraday high of 1.1164 but then retreated quickly to around 1.1110, the level before the BoE meeting. The Fed’s Lockhart said two rate hikes are still possible this year but depending how the economy evolve. Despite his tone was rather hawkish, the USD index and its main component Euro were not moved by his speech . GBP BOE maintains bank rate at 0.5% and the size of asset purchase program at £375 billion. The MPC voted by a majority of 8-1 to maintain bank rate at 0.5%, with one member voting for a cut in bank rate to 0.25%. The accompanying monetary policy summary suggests that easing measures may be delivered in August “in the absence of a further worsening in the trade-off between supporting growth and returning inflation to target on a sustainable basis” and a “combinations and various easing options” have been discussed in the meeting. JPY safe-haven sank across the board yesterday. The USD climbed to a near three-week high against the JPY and the pair hit an intraday high of 105.93 amid the upbeat mood on global stock markets set fresh record closing highs. Japan should not resort to “helicopter money,” which would see the central bank directly underwriting public debt because that could stoke runaway inflation, a key adviser to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said yesterday.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Range trade persists, 1.12 resistance 1.10 support, over 1.12 sets target at symmetry swing resistance sited at 1.13, below 1.10 opens 1.09 reaction lows.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: 1.3340 breach focuses upside attention on symmetry swing resistance sited at 1.3550. Below 1.32 opens 1.30 base retest
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: While 104 acts as support 106.70 becomes the next upside objective. Only a close below pivotal 103.50 threatens near term bullish bias.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: As 116.40 supports bulls target 119.30 as the next upside objective.Only below 115 threatens near term bullish bias
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

Commodities FX: GOLD fell for a second straight session as global equities rallied on easing political uncertainty in Britain and hopes for more economic stimulus, which in turn curbed demand for assets perceived as a safe haven. Oil prices rebounded on Thursday (14 Jul) on the back of better risk appetite for equities and a weaker US dollar. This was despite bearish sentiments from oil analysts for the outlook. The US Nymex WTI futures increased by US$0.93 to US$45.68. AUD Australia’s unemployment rate edged 0.1% higher to 5.8% in June, reflecting the surge in labor participation force (64.9% vs May: 64.8%). Job market remained solid with the total number of people gaining employment rising by 7900 last month, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. CAD strengthened to a nine-day high against the USD as higher oil and stock prices supported the risk-sensitive commodity-linked currency. The loonie gained after the Bank of Canada left its policy rate unchanged at 0.50 percent and stayed optimistic about the economic outlook even as it cut its growth forecasts.

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Offers above .7660 proving sticky for now renewed push through here sets bullish sites on .7830 next. Intraday support is sited at .7550.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: 1.2850 pivotal for carving out a potentially bullish base, with higher lows.Below 1.28 opens move back to range lows 1.2650.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

XAUUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: Bulls now target 1391 as 1320 bids continue to support. Only below 1300 concerns near term bullish bias
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USOIL
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: 44 acts as pivotal support while this level survives 48.30 become the upside objective. Below 44 opens 41.87 as the downside objective.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

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