Morning Report: Greek Deal Getting Close EUR Going Lower

Market Commentary  

The emergency EU summit last night provided a glimpse of hope despite failing to reach a deal, the gap between Greek officials and its creditors seems to have narrowed, bringing short term element of optimism to the markets. The reactions in EURUSD was relatively more muted however, initially reaching a high of 1.1411 before giving back its gains and consolidating around the 1.1340/60 region. The optimism was again short lived as cautious mood prevailed in the currency market throughout this morning’s session as the pair dropped down to a low of 1.1255 and seems content to be trading heavily.The manufacturing PMI data later could provide some near term direction for euro.

Positive developments in Greece has given risk sentiment a lift, along with it the UST yields, equities, and the USD. USDJPY 122.85 now as the initial support ahead of 122.45 . Bullish outside day printed in the dailies as well, with resistance coming in at 123.80 initially. A close above 124.00 is needed for further momentum to the topside to increase.

GBPUSD moved into the Asian session in what looks to be a shake out of near ­term bullish positions built over the course of the past few sessions. The pair traded to a low of 1.5765 from 1.5800 in seconds, with USD strength noted across the FX markets. Market remain bullish the currency – initial supports at 1.5750 and 1.5700, while resistance levels come in at 1.5800 now followed by 1.5830

Technical  Commentary 

EURUSD Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish

  • Caution potential triple top structure rejects bullish advance, below 1.1150 concerns near term bullish bias, a breach of pivotal 1.1050 is needed to reverse bullish structure and really give bears the ball. While 1.1150 survives expect retest of 1.1330
  • Daily Order Flow bullish; OBV down, Linear Regression and Psychology pierce midpoints from above
  • Monitoring intraday price and Order Flow indicators on a test of 1.16 or 1.1050/1.1150

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GBPUSD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish

  • Initial support at 1.58 trendline is being eroded below 1.57 signals caution for near term bullish advance, only below 1.5550 concerns bullish bias
  • Daily Order Flow bullish; OBV sideways to down , Linear Regression and Psychology bullish but starting to roll over
  • Monitoring intraday price action and Order Flow indicators on a test of 1.57 or 1.6010

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USDJPY: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish  – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bullish

  • 122 pivotal support while 122.50 contains downside expect test of 125, failure at 122.50 opens pivotal 122 and the 121 corrective equality target below.
  • Daily Order Flow bearish ; OBV sideways to up, Linear Regression and Psychology rotate around midpoints
  • Monitoring intraday price action and Order Flow indicators on a test of 128 or 122/21

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EURJPY: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish

  • While 141.75 area caps the advance look for a retest of 137 as potential base for next leg higher for symmetry swing objective at 143.60’s
  • Daily Order Flow bearish; OBV sideways to down, Linear Regression and Psychology pierce midpoints from above but lack momentum
  • Monitoring intraday price action and Order Flow indicators at 141.75 or 137/36

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