Morning Report: Greek Debt Deal Grinds On

Market Commentary  

Markets reverse Tuesdays price action on Wednesday; Greece markets lower, drags equity markets down, pushes EURUSD up; debt settlement talks continue and will likely go to the wire before some sort of fudged deal is put in place. USD slightly lower as final US Q1 GDP reading improves but still negative; big inventory build to draw from Q2 activity; rates soften, one rate hike by year end down to 76% chance in the Fed funds market.

EURUSD grinded higher steadily from 1.1154 to 1.1200 area during Asian session, but the pair slipped back when Greek PM Tsipras said that creditors did not accept Greek proposals. Negotiations to avert a Greek debt continued to stumble as Euro zone minister accused Greece of refusing to compromise and reform its costly pension system.

GBPUSD rallied to 1.5802 high on the speculation of the UK rate hike this year but soon the pair lost its momentum and eased back to 1.5700 level. PM David Cameron will pitch his renegotiation of Britain’s relationship with the European Union at a summit today for the prospect of a Greek default and migrant crises.

USDJPY retreated to below 124 handle after reaching the high of 124.37 overnight. BOJ released the monetary policy minutes on Wednesday, which echoed the same old tune that the QQE is exerting its intended effects and the BOJ will adjust policy if necessary. Fair amount of US data today may overshadow Greek issues in the near term and dictate price action on the day as traders shift focus back to US rate reliance on the data slate

Technical  Commentary 

EURUSD Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish  – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish

  • 1.1150 survives on first test as 1.1260 stems upside reactions, expect a test of  pivotal 1.1050 a failure here would reverse the current bullish structure and really give bears the ball. Above 1.1260 expect retest of 1.1330/40
  • Daily Order Flow bearish; OBV sideways to down, Linear Regression and Psychology bearish
  • Monitoring intraday price and Order Flow indicators on a test of 1.16 or 1.1050/1.1150

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GBPUSD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish  – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish

  • 1.57 back under pressure, as 1.5830/50 caps upside reactions expect test of primary trendline support at 1.5550, above 1.5850 opens retest of highs and 1.60 beyond, below 1.5550 opens 1.5350 next
  • Daily Order Flow bearish; OBV sideways to down , Linear Regression and Psychology bullish but pulling back to test midpoints from above
  • Monitoring intraday price action and Order Flow indicators on a test of 1.57 or 1.6010

gu2015-06-25 07_39_44-

USDJPY: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish  – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bullish

  • 122 pivotal support while 122.50 contains downside expect test of 125, failure at 122.50 opens pivotal 122 and the 121 corrective equality target below, while 125 caps upside expect test of 122, above 125 targets 127/128 next
  • Daily Order Flow bullish ; OBV sideways to down, Linear Regression and Psychology continue to rotate around midpoints
  • Monitoring intraday price action and Order Flow indicators on a test of 128 or 122/21

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EURJPY: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish

  • Looking for retest of 137 as potential base for next leg higher for symmetry swing objective at 143.60’s. Failure at 137 opens a retest of 134/133
  • Daily Order Flow bearish; OBV sideways, Linear Regression pierces midpoint from below, Psychology pierce midpoints from above but lack momentum
  • Monitoring intraday price action and Order Flow indicators at 141.75 or 137/36

ey2015-06-25 07_41_23-