Morning Report: Range Trade Into The Weekend

Market Commentary  

EURUSD edged lower from 1.1320 to 1.1182 on solid US retail sales and the uncertainties around the Greek debt deal. The IMF has exited the debt talks with Greece, claimed that there were some major differences apparent in most key areas. Greece needs a deal to unlock aid before the end of June when it is otherwise set to default on a 1.6 bln euro repayment to the IMF. Overnight there were reports in the German press that the German government were preparing for a Greek state bankruptcy.

GBPUSD grinded higher steadily to near-three-week high at 1.5533, but then the pair slipped back after the head of BoE claimed there was no clues when to raise interest rates from historic lows. During the speech by Governor Mark Carney, he focused on plans to clamp down on market abuse but did not talk about ant monetary policy.

USDJPY rebounded from Wednesdays lows of 122.46 and reached a 124.12 high post the better than expected US retail sales data. “Yen in real effective terms is weak although still around appropriate level to reflect Japan’s fundamentals; FX market may have already priced in expectations that U.S. Federal Reserve will increase interest rates later this year”, overnight comments by Naoyuki Shinohara, the former top currency official at Japan finance ministry, USDJPY holds steady overnight with a 2.3Bln 123 expiry due at today’s NY cut.

Technical  Commentary 


EURUSD Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish

Second rejection from the primary descending trendline, while 1.14 contains the advance focus shifts to bids at 1.12 a failure here opens 1.1050. A break of 1.1465 opens an initial symmetry target at 1.16

Daily Order Flow bullish ; OBV sideways to down, Linear Regression and Psychology bearish but lack momentum

Monitoring intraday price and Order Flow indicators on a test of 1.16 or 1.1050

eu2015-06-12 07_22_06-

GBPUSD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish

1.5550 sees sellers engage on the first test, while this area contains the upside advance bears require an erosion of 1.5450 support to target 1.5350 next, while 1.5450 supports expect retest of 1.5550

Daily Order Flow bullish; OBV sideways to down , Linear Regression pierces midpoint from below, Psychology bearish but attempting midpoint test from below

Monitoring intraday price action and Order Flow indicators on a test of 1.5050 or 1.54/5550

gu2015-06-12 07_23_59-

USDJPY: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish  – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bullish

122.50 supports and 124 is achieved on first leg of correction from 125, while 123 contains downside expect test of 125, failure at 123 opens 122

Daily Order Flow bullish ; OBV sideways to up, Linear Regression and Psychology rolling over to pierce midpoints from above

Monitoring intraday price action and Order Flow indicators on a test of 128 or 122

uj2015-06-12 07_29_03-

EURJPY: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish

Retesting last weeks highs en route to a symmetry target of 141.75 while this area caps the advance look for a retest of 137

Daily Order Flow bearish; OBV down, Linear Regression and Psychology bearish

Monitoring intraday price action and Order Flow indicators at 141.75 or 137/36

ey2015-06-12 07_30_25-