New York Forex Report:

New York Forex Report: Dollar Stays Down Ahead Of Yellen

New York Forex Report: USD kicks off the week just off last week’s lows with Friday’s shocking NFP print weighing heavily. Traders now await Fed Chair Yellen who speaks later today with markets hoping for clues as to the impact of Friday’s data on the Fed’s leaning toward a June rate hike. Whilst the headline print was significantly softer than expected, the Unemployment rate ticked lower and wage growth remained firm. Bulls hope that the Fed will not place too much importance on just one number.

FX Majors: Quiet start to the week with no tier one data scheduled today. Looking ahead we have a raft of key data this week with EuroZone GDP and RBA rate decision on Tuesday, Japanese Trade Balance, Swiss CPI and New Zealand rate decision on Wednesday followed by UK Trade Balance on Thursday and Canadian Unemployment on Friday.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: The breach of 1.1250 was the catalyst for the push to 1.1350 where the advance has stalled printing a high of 1.13735. As 1.1290 symmetry supports expect a break of highs targeting 1.14 as the next upside objective Below 1.12 suggests false upside break and resets attention on 1.1065
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: While 1.4580/1.46 contains upside reactions expect a retest of 1.4330 bids in a pre Brexit referendum range of 1.4770/1.4330
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Anticipated trend resistance at 111.30 attracted sellers with downside ratchet now targeting a retest of 1.5.55 lows with the potential for a daily double bottom pattern to develop. Failure at 1.05 opens 103 as the next downside objective. 108.50 is the near term pivotal resistance
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Bears came within 20pips of the much anticipated 120.60 level. While 121.20 contains upside reactions expect a grind lower to breach last weeks lows enroute to a weekly equality objective at 117.36
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

Commodities FX: Oil prices remain firm as we start the week, benefiting from the downshift in US rate-hike expectations and further production outages as saboteurs attack Nigerian oil plants. Latest reports show that Saudi Arabia has cut its Oil prices to Europe to combat a surge in Iranian Oil exports.

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: While .7300/.7280 contain downside reactions AUD has a window to recover and test symmetry and structure resistance sited at .7480/.7500 where fresh selling is expected to emerge. Failure at .7210 suggest early reversal with bears targeting .7140 lows and stops below.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: While 1.2910 supports, price continues to carve out a bullish consolidation pattern targeting offers at 1.3210 as the next upside extension target. Only a close below 1.2760 eases bullish pressure and suggest a grind back to test bids at 1.2459 and stops below
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

XAUUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: Bids ahead of pivotal1190 proved sufficient to see a sharp reversal from sub 1200 to test offers ahead of 1250. While this level stems the upside expect a rotation back towards 1225, over 1250 opens pivotal 1280 resistance. Failure at 1190 opens 1140/50 symmetry targets.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USOIL
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: Second rejection above 50.00 concerns bulls near term although as 46.70 continues to support expect a test of the larger AB=CD swing objective at 51.07, only a close below 43.00 threatens bullish bias
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long