New York Forex Report: Sterling Sinks On Soft CPI

New York Forex Report: Sterling Sinks On Soft CPI

New York Forex Report: USD traded higher over the European morning as markets adjust ahead of the June FOMC meeting tomorrow. Data flow has been limited over the early part of the week though traders look ahead to US Retail Sales for May due today at 1330GMT1.

FX Majors: Sterling, which is under significant pressure on reports that the latest Brexit polls showing rising support for the Leave campaign, was weighed upon further over the European morning today as the latest inflation data for the UK printed below expectations at 0.3% vs 0.4% YoY in May and 1.2% vs 1.3% on Core. EuroZone Industrial Production data printed much better than expected at 2% vs 1.4% in April.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: Sharp Rejection by symmetry swing resistance sited at 1.140 Below 1.12 suggests false upside break and resets attention on 1.1065, interim resistance sited at 1.1310
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Pre Brexit referendum range of 1.4770/1.4330 expands to the downside, only a daily close above 1.4350 suggest false downside break. As 1.4330 contains upside reactions expect test of 1.40 next, over 1.4350 suggest return to range.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Downside ratchet now targeting a retest of 105.55 lows with the potential for a daily double bottom pattern to develop. Failure at 105 opens 103 as the next downside objective. 108.50 is the near term pivotal resistance
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: While 121.60 contains upside reactions expect a grind lower to breach last weeks lows enroute to a weekly equality objective at 117.36. A close over 122.70 suggests a broader recovery targeting 124.30 as the next upside objective
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

Commodities FX: GOLD rose for the fourth straight session and hit its highest level since mid-May on Monday, driven by rising risk aversion before central bank meetings this week and the UK’s 23 June vote on whether to leave the EU. Oil fell a fourth day over mounting Brexit risks and renewed concerns of supply glut. According to data from Baker Hughes, shale drillers added 12 oil rigs in the US in the last two weeks which was the first consecutive weekly gains since August AUD held steady on Monday as traders avoided taking major positions amid Brexit fears and ahead of several key central bank meetings this week. CAD uncertainty over this week’s FOMC meeting has pressured oil although the Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged.

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Rejected by resistance sited at .7480/.7500 where fresh selling emerged as expected. As .7450 rejects upside reactions expect rotation to test .7230 support next.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Fridays close 1 pip below 1.2760 suggested a potential false break of support, which was confirmed as anticipated by yesterdays close. While 1.2655 supports 1.2910 is the next upside objective.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

XAUUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: Pivotal 1280 resistance proves sticky while 1295 contains the current upside advance expect rotation back to 1260.. Failure at 1230 opens 1190 again.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

USOIL
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: Anticipated AB=CD swing objective at 51.07 achieved and prompts sharp reversal, only a close below 46 threatens medium term bullish bias, as 47.40 supports expect deep retest of prior 51.60 highs, potential double top.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long