New York Forex Report: All Eyes On The ECB

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: Drifted lower over the European morning with short exposure ahead of the ECB increasing. ECB expected to keep rates unchanged and to refrain from any policy adjustments though special attention will be paid to commentary for signs of potential easing to come in the months ahead.

Technical: a close above 1.1390 now required to present the catalyst for renewed topside momentum bringing the key 1.1500 resistance level back into play .To the downside we continue to look at the recent nonfarm break up levels with 1.1310 and 1.1270 providing key support.

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.13 stops below. Offers 1.1390 Stops above.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish to neutral
Trading Take-away: Sidelines for now

eu2015-10-22 07_12_57-NetDania - NetStation

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: GBP traded sharply higher over the European morning as September retail sales came in above the expected 4.7% to print 5.9% though news of the prior figure being revised down into negative territory capped Sterling’s advance ahead of the New York session.

Technical:  While 1.5380 supports downside reactions expect a grind higher to test 1.56 symmetry objective. A breach of 1.5360 targets a retest of pivotal 1,53 support.

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.54 stops below. Offers 1.5550 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bearish to neutral
Trading Take-away: Buy pullback against 1.5380 targeting 1.56

gu2015-10-22 07_14_56-NetDania - NetStation

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: USDJPY weakened over the European morning as USD retreated from session highs. Investor expectations ahead of next week’s BOJ meeting keeping flows fairly constrained however.

Technical: Breach of 119.50 eases bearish pressure and opens a retest of 120.50 next. A  failure at 119 support suggests upside failure and a rotation back to 118 support to follow.

Interbank Flows: Bids 118.50/30 stops below. Offers 120.50 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines for now

uj2015-10-22 07_15_25-NetDania - NetStation

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: EURJPY was sharply lower over the European morning as Euro weakness persist ahead of the ECB with JPY supported by weaker equities.

Technical:  While 136.50 caps upside reactions expect a retest of 134.80 a failure here sets bearish tone targeting 133.40 next. A break back above 136.50 eases bearish pressure and sets a retest of 137.

Interbank Flows: Bids 134.80/60 stops below. Offers 137 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines for now

ey2015-10-22 07_17_12-NetDania - NetStation

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: AUDUSD remains toward the bottom end of last week’s range as USD continues to strengthen. A rebound in commodities this morning has kept price supported.

Technical: Bids ahead of .7200 being tested , while this level holds on an intraday basis expect a retest of offers above .7300. A close back above .7300 targets a .7400 resistance next. Failure at .7200 targets .7160 symmetry objective.

Interbank Flows: Bids .7200 stops below. Offers .7400 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines for now

au2015-10-22 07_17_42-NetDania - NetStation

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Fundamental: CAD  weakened against US dollar after the Bank of Canada lowered its growth
forecasts for 2016 and 2017. The bank held its key rate steady but said that growth would be slower than previously forecast as lower prices for oil and other commodities were dampening business investment and exports in the resource sector.

Technical: Near term bearish tend remains intact as intraday resistance at 1.3260 contains intraday upside reactions bears target a retest of bids below 1.2850. A breach of 1.3260 opens test of 1.3450 offers and potential broader bullish trend continuation

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.2850 stops below. Offers 1.3060 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Neutral to bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines for now

uc2015-10-22 07_18_11-NetDania - NetStation

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