New York Forex Report: BOE Cite Risk To Growth From EU Referendum

New York Forex Report: BOE Cite Risk To Growth From EU Referendum

New York Forex Report: In their April rates meeting the Bank Of England voting unanimously to keep rates on hold at current 0.50% levels citing potential risk to Q1 growth from the forthcoming EU referendum which they also say is making data harder to interpret and as such will be reacting more cautiously than normal. On the plus side the bank did note that the combination of stronger Oil and weaker Sterling is likely to stoke inflation and that disappointing US GDP is mitigated by a shrinking Chinese risk.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: EURUSD weakness was halted over the early European session today as the latest EuroZone CPI data was slightly better than expected in March with the headline printing 0% against -0.1% expected.

Technical: Failure at 1.1330 opens 1.1220 support next as 1.1330 now become intraday resistance. A breach of 1.1220 opens 1.1140 as the next downside objective.

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.12 stops below. Offers 1.1350 stops above.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: In their April rates meeting the Bank Of England voting unanimously to keep rates on hold at current 0.50% levels citing potential risk to Q1 growth from the forthcoming EU referendum which they also say is making data harder to interpret and as such will be reacting more cautiously than normal. On the plus side the bank did note that the combination of stronger Oil and weaker Sterling is likely to stoke inflation and that disappointing US GDP is mitigated by a shrinking Chinese risk.

Technical: Price continues to finds bids at 1.4050 pivotal support within the broader 1.45/1.40 range, While 1.4140 supports 1.44 symmetry swing objective is the upside target.. A failure to hold 1.40 opens a retest of year to date lows at 1.38 ahead of 1.37 weekly swing objective.

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.41 stops below. Offers 1.44 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: JPY strengthened a little over the European morning as the recovery in risk appetite stalled. Traders now look ahead to US CPI data, the key data on the session.

Technical: The downside ratchet now targets 105.50 as the next major downside objective.The breach of 1.09 intraday resistance now sets sites on a symmetry and structure targets at 110.70 which should attract fresh selling for renewed weakness.

Interbank Flows: Bids 107.50 offers below. Offers 110.50 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that there are “many ways” to expand monetary policy further if risks threaten the achievement of the central bank’s 2% inflation target and he also reiterated that the monetary easing steps of BoJ were not directly targeted at weakening the JPY.

Technical: Bears target a retest of 122.05 year to date lows, resistance is sited at 124.50. Only a close over 126.80 eases immediate downside pressure.

Interbank Flows: Bids 122 stops below. Offers 124.50 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Fundamental: AUD hovered at a 10-month peak, after upbeat Chinese export statistics and a rally in commodity prices underpinned appetite for risk assets. The Aussie had been buoyed by a near 5% rise in price of iron ore, Australia’s top export earner, the second straight session of gains.

Technical: Only a close below .7500 threatens the near term bullish bias, while this level supports intraday expect a grind higher to test .7770. A failure at .7500 opens pivotal .7450 support.

Interbank Flows: Bids .7500 stops below. Offers .7700 stops above.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: The Canadian Dollar strengthened against the US Dollar over the European morning as Oil price turned upward. Yesterday the BOC kept interest rates steady, saying weaker global growth, a less favourable US outlook and shrinking business investment would drive the economic outlook lower if not for the boost from the government’s fiscal stimulus.

Technical: Bids just below below 1.2780 encourage a bounce intraday resistance now sited at 1.29 ahead of pivotal 1.30 resistance. As 1.29 rejects the rebound expect a move to 1.2550 as the next downside objective.

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.2750 stops below. Offers 1.29 stops above.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral