New York Forex Report: Buck Bid, Consumer Confidence Eyed

New York Forex Report: Buck Bid, Consumer Confidence Eyed

New York Forex Report: USD remains well-supported in quiet trade as traders shift focus on Friday’s US NFP data for guidance on the timing of the next Fed rate increase. Fed Vice Chair Fischer helped support Fed rate hike speculation by remarking that the US economy is “very close” to full employment. Turnover remains low, however, with the UK returning from its bank holiday today and North America’s holiday weekend ahead. The JPY is somewhat of an underperformer on the session after a government advisor suggested that buying foreign bonds could be an option for the BoJ if direct FX intervention continues to be frowned upon by Japan’s G7 peers. Quiet trading may persist in the session ahead, given that the only US data release of note is consumer confidence.

FX Majors: EUR Yesterday was a quiet day for the Euro as investors are looking forward to the non-farm payrolls data due this Friday as which will be an important hint of Fed’s rate hike schedule. EUR/USD was traded sideways around 1.1188 on Monday. Apart from non-farm payrolls data, the August German Consumer Price Index and US Consumer Confidence will also be closely watched GBP was quiet on Monday as UK was on holiday. Together with an empty domestic economic calendar, GBPUSD was flirting around the 1.3100 handle with tight range.The British government is now facing a dilemma of when and how to make a Brexit landing which should be complicated by a refusal on the part of EU leaders to discuss potential outcomes until Britain invokes the exit procedure. JPY Strengthening the case for more stimulus in BOJ’s monetary policy review due next month, Japan’s household spending fell 0.5% YOY (June: -2.20% YOY) while retail trade slumped 0.20% YOY (June: -1.30% YOY) last month. Both readings reflected weak domestic demand despite previous easing measures. The only bright spot was monthly retail sales which accelerated to increase 1.4% MOM in July after growing 0.3% MOM in June.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: As 1.1240 caps upside, EUR looks set to test symmetry swing support sited at 1.1125. Over 1.1250 brings last weeks highs back into play at 1.1366
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: As 1.3165 contains upside moves 1.30 becomes the next downside objective, over 1.32 opens a move back to 1.3278 highs
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: A breach of 102.80 resistance opens a move back to test offers over 104, as 102.80 caps upside expect a retest of 101.30
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: A close over 114.70 symmetry swing resistance opens a move to test 116.10 as the next meaningful upside hurdle. A break back below 113.40 opens 112.70/80 again
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

Commodities FX: GOLD rebounded from a near five-week low, shrugging off earlier pressure by Fed officials’ comments fuelling speculation that US interest rates would rise sooner rather than later. Oil prices fell nearly 2 percent on Monday, snapping two consecutive sessions of gains, on caution over galloping Middle East crude output and a stronger dollar. AUD fell to its lowest level in nearly a month after traders increased bets on a lift of US interest rate following Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s upbeat assessment of the economy Friday. The Aussie started weak yesterday morning session and traded as low as 0.7522, its lowest level since 2 August. With the RBA more likely to ease and the Fed to hike, traders believe the scope for any strong rally in the pair may be limited and depends on the US jobs data due Friday. CAD. The market’s lack of confidence in the ability for oil producers to agree on a production freeze has been weighing on the commodity and by extension the CAD. Looking ahead, it’s the Canada current account and US consumer confidence that stand out on the data slate.

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Bulls will be looking for pivotal symmetry swing support at .7501 to cap the downside correction and set a base to target offers over .7600. A close below .7500 would concern the near term bullish bias.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Resistance sited at 1.30 has been removed as 1.2960 supports near term expect a further grind higher to test 1.31 as the next upside objective
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

XAUUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: Bulls target 1391 as the next upside objective, near term support is sited at 1330 is under pressure pivotal support is sited at 1301 which represents AB=CD equidistant swing support. Below 1300 opens 1270.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USOIL
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: As 46.50 supports expect a further rind higher to test 50.00 as the next upside objective, only below 43.60 concerns the near term bullish bias
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines