New York Forex Report: Cable Crashes As UK Inflation Turns Negative Once More

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: After some initial strength early in European trading with European equities weaker, EUR softened into the New York open following a miss on the German ZEW survey which came in at a very low 1.9 vs 6.5 expected. An absence of tier one data should see quiet trading over the American session

Technical: price is pressuring the upper end of the recent range the sustained breach of 1.1330 now targets 1.1460 as the next upside objective. Look for 1.1280/1.13 to provide intraday support for the advance

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.13 stops below. Offers 1.14 Stops above.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Buy pullbacks against 1.1280 targeting 1.15

eu2015-10-13 07_34_15-NetDania - NetStation

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: Heavy flows went through GBPUSD in European trading just ahead of the September CPI release which once again saw the UK dipping back into deflation with a print of -0.1% which saw Cable down over 150 pips on the session. BOE’s McCafferty was on the wires just after stating that downward inflationary pressures are still seen as transitory. McCafferty also noted his “great uncertainty” about the levels of slack in the UK economy and risks posed by the global environment.

Technical: Clear breach of 1.53 support paves the way for a retest of the 1.5150 area support whilst 1.5260 resistance holds intra-day.

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.5260/80 stops below. Offers 1.54 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bearish to neutral
Trading Take-away: Sell pullback against 1.5260gbpny

 

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: A drop in Chinese imports saw a pullback in risk sentiment over European trading with JPY a little firmer whilst Japanese consumer confidence overnight came in below expectations at 40.6 against the expected 41.6.

Technical: Continues to coil in contracting range, play range 121.50 the offer and 118.50 the bid until broken.

Interbank Flows: Bids 118.50/30 stops below. Offers 121.50 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Neutral to bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines for now

uj2015-10-13 07_36_25-NetDania - NetStation

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: Week ahead has BOJ minutes; September preliminary machine tool orders (Tue); Sep PPI (Wed); Aug IP, capacity utilization, tertiary index (Thu). Markets looking for the BOJ to add to its easing measures at end of October meeting (the BOJ semi annual outlook report will be released at the same time) given the lack of inflationary pressures and sluggish growth.

Technical:  The close above 136 opens a retest of upper end of the recent range and a retest of offers at 137 next. Remain bullish while 135.80/136 supports intraday downside reactions

Interbank Flows: Bids 135.80 stops below. Offers 137 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Neutral to bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines for now

ey2015-10-13 07_36_51-NetDania - NetStation

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: Amid stronger commodity prices, improving market sentiment and broad US dollar weakness, AUDUSD reached new highs yesterday coming close to 74 US cents, however a drop in Chinese imports has seen AUDUSD retracing from recent highs, as risk sentiment was pared over European trading.

Technical: The .7277 September high is immediate support intra-day and if held should see a move back up to 74. Below opens a move down the 72 handle.

Interbank Flows: Bids .7300 stops below. Offers .7400 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Buy pull backs against .7200 targeting .7400

au2015-10-13 08_00_16-NetDania - NetStation

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Fundamental: European trading saw Oil prices tumble lower, as investors took profits after last week’s surge to an 11-week high, on a report that OPEC continued to increase crude production despite a persistent surplus. USDCAD has firmed accordingly as the broader commodities retrace recent gains.

Technical: Near term bearish trend remains intact as intraday resistance at 1.3060 contains intraday upside reactions bears target 1.2850 bids as the next downside objective

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.289 stops below. Offers 1.3060 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines for now

uc2015-10-13 08_05_03-NetDania - NetStation

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