New York Forex Report: Commodities Rebound Keeps Risk Supported

New York Forex Report: Commodities Rebound Keeps Risk Supported

New York Forex Report: Oil continued to trade higher over the European morning as a the strike among Oil workers in Kuwait reaches its third day. The moves in Oil have boosted risk sentiment with commodity and equity markets trading higher despite the failure to strike a deal in Doha this weekend. The commodity FX bloc continues to be the best performing whilst JPY softens on diminished safe-haven demand. RBA governor Stevens speaks in New York later today providing the key focus for the US session alongside New Zealand dairy auctions .

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: EURUSD still trading quietly as traders not willing to open positions of ahead of ECB meeting due this Thursday. Some analysts believe that ECB may have run out of ammunition to weaken the Euro. German and EuroZone Economic Sentiment both beat expectations in April.

Technical: 1.1220 support survives on the initial test as 1.1330 now becomes resistance. A breach of 1.1220 opens 1.1140 as the next downside objective. A breach of 1.1330 opens 1.1460’s again.

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.12 stops below. Offers 1.1350 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: Sterling continued to push higher over the European morning tracking the gains in risk assets. Brexit issue still clouds the outlook however.

Technical: Price continues to finds bids at 1.4050 pivotal support within the broader 1.45/1.40 range, While 1.4140 supports 1.44 symmetry swing objective is the upside target. A failure to hold 1.40 opens a retest of year to date lows at 1.38 ahead of 1.37 weekly swing objective.

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.41 stops below. Offers 1.44 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: Classic risk on with equities and yielders all higher as the JPY reversed its Doha and G20 commentary weakness. USD dropped to 107.81 against the perceived safe-haven JPY during the early Asian trading session amid the key producers failed to reach an agreement to curb global supply, however, the pair edged up to intraday highs of 108.98 due to the recovery in risk appetite.

Technical: The downside ratchet now targets 105.50 as the next major downside objective.Trend resistance is sited at symmetry and structure confluence at 110.70 which should attract fresh selling for renewed weakness.

Interbank Flows: Bids 107.50 offers below. Offers 110.50 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: EURJPY firmed over the European morning as JPY softened amidst an improved risk environment. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said inflation could be affected if the yen continued to rise excessively, leading to further easing measures to meet the central bank’s price target

Technical: Bears now target weekly symmetry objective at 120.60, resistance is sited at 124.50. Only a close over 126.80 eases immediate downside pressure.

Interbank Flows: Bids 120.50 stops below. Offers 124.50 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Fundamental: AUDUSD remains supported heading into the NY open on Tuesday with a broad recovery in risk sentiment underpinning the RBA minutes released overnight which downplayed the low inflation outlook with the recent improvements in the labour market. RBA governor Stevens to speak in New York today.

Technical: 7770 upside objective achieved. While .7500 supports the advance bulls target .7880 as the next upside objective

Interbank Flows: Bids .7500 stops below. Offers .7800 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: CAD strengthened against the USD, gaining back all the ground it lost after the abolishing of a plan by major oil producers to freeze production. The USDCAD remains offered related to the recent weaker US economic figures leading to a possible delay of Federal Reserve hike of US interest rates, while stronger Canadian statistics and comments from the Bank of Canada point to a more robust domestic outlook.

Technical: Bids just below below 1.2750 potential double bottom test underway, failure here opens 1.2560 as the next downside objective. Only over 1.3250 eases immediate downside bias.

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.27 stops below. Offers 1.3250 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short