New York Forex Report: Commodities Rebound

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: EUR traded higher over the European session as German industrial production figures came in weak at 2.3% undershooting analyst expectations of 3.3% with European equity markets softer following the release. Comments from ECB’s Knot stated that an extension of QE had not been discussed by the ECB board but that increased market volatility (China risk) pose largest threat to financial stability.

Technical: Whipsaw within the contracting range testing descending trendline resistance at 1.1280 an upside breach targets stops above 1.13 next. While 1.13 contains the upside expect a retest of range lows towards 1.11

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.1130/50 stops below. Offers 1.13 Stops above.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral to bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines for now

eu2015-10-07 07_43_03-NetDania - NetStation

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: Sterling strengthened sharply over the European session as Industrial production figures rose 1.9% beating the expected 1.2%, extending the strength from yesterday’s session amidst US Dollar weakness. Traders will be watching the NIESR GDP Estimate at 1500GMT1 ahead of tomorrow’s BOE meeting.

Technical: Moves through offers at 1.520. While 1.53 stems the advance on a closing basis next downside objective is a test of 1.50 psychological support. A close above 1.53 opens 1.54 as the next upside objective.

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.5080/60 stops below. Offers 1.53 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines for now

gu2015-10-07 07_44_11-NetDania - NetStation

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: European session saw USDJPY recover ground from losses incurred as the BOJ kept its policy unchanged over Asian trading. Improved risk sentiment with the commodity rebound sees JPY weaken as safe haven flow reduces.

Technical: Bids towards 118.50 hold strong once again, now trading back to the midpoint of the recent range and holding support at 119.50 area. For now play range 121.50 the offer and 118.50 the bid until broken.

Interbank Flows: Bids 118.50/30 stops below. Offers 121.50 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines for now

uj2015-10-07 07_44_47-NetDania - NetStation

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: EUR strength and JPY weakness have seen EURJPY trading firmer over the European session. BOJ Governor Kuroda dismissed suggestions of negative interest rates in the near future in comments made during the post-BOJ press conference.

Technical: 134 intraday support to watch a failure here targets a retest of 133 bid. While 134 survives on a closing basis expect renewed upside pressure on 135.60 interim resistance. A close above 136 opens a retest of upper end of the recent range and a retest of offers at 137 next.

Interbank Flows: Bids 134 stops below. Offers 136 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Neutral to bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines for now

ey2015-10-07 07_45_29-NetDania - NetStation

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: The Aussie has continued to benefit from short reductions following the neutral RBA meeting on Tuesday. Commodity prices have been firmer over European trading encouraging Aussie bulls amidst a softer US Dollar.

Technical:While .71 supports intraday downside reactions expect renewed upside pressure to target stops above .72 enroute to equality corrective objective at .73.

Interbank Flows: Bids .6850 stops below. Offers .72 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Neutral to bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines for now

au2015-10-07 08_40_55-NetDania - NetStation

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Fundamental: Yesterday saw Oil close above the descending trend line running from the 2014 highs adding support for the Canadian Dollar amidst a broad commodity recovery over European trading. Building permits is key domestic data at 1330GMT1 expected 0.3% from -0.6% previous.

Technical: Testing downside symmetry objective at 1.30  pivotal for trend continuation, a failure below 1.30 suggests the potential for a more significant trend reversal.

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.30 stops below. Offers 1.33 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines for now

uc2015-10-07 08_46_22-NetDania - NetStation

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