New York Forex Report: Dollar Down 0.5% In Thin Summer Trade

New York Forex Report: Dollar Down 0.5% In Thin Summer Trade

New York Forex Report: BoE sees Brexit dampening capex, hiring and turnover. The UK central bank also stated this morning it will incorporate yesterdays auction shortfall in purchases into its H2 plan. On a brighter note for the beleaguered Great British Pound UK home buyers haven’t been deterred from purchases post Brexit according to robust lending data issued by the Council of Mortgage Lenders, this has helped support sterling during the European trade. Thin summer markets have also seen the Euro extend over night gains as stop loss orders have been triggered through 1.1160 with stops above 1.12 now in sight as we head into the North American open the USD Index is down just over 0.5% on the day.

FX Majors: EUR shored up against the US dollar during early London session by a greater-than-expected widening of the German trade surplus, although this was paired with a rather disappointing exports figure. Although US wholesale inventories were up at 0.3% in June and small business optimism had improved in July, reports that productivity in the US labour market had worsened for the third consecutive quarter weighed on the greenback appeal, maintaining the EURUSD pair’s bid tone overnight GBP UK’s industrial production rose 0.1% MOM in June after a 0.6% MOM contraction in May. Output was lackluster before the Brexit referendum as manufacturing declined for a second month. Depicting increasing headwinds ahead, Britain’s growth slowed to 0.3% in the three months through July from 0.6% in the second quarter. JPY Japanese data affirmed that business spending remained subdued amid weakness in global demand. In addition, inflation indicators out of Japan and China continue to point to very modest growth in price pressure.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: While 1.1040 supports there is potential for a near term base to target 1.1330. Failure below 1.1030 opens 1.0950 on the downside.Near term support is sited at 1.11.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: 1.2950 equidistant swing objective achieved and attracts anticipated profit taking. 1.31 the immediate upside hurdle ahead of pivotal 1.3160. As 1.31 caps corrective expect retest of yesterdays lows.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: The close below 103 will see bears target a retest of cycle lows below 100. Near term resistance is sited at 102.80, over 102.90 targets 103.50 next.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: The breach of 113 opens 110.80 as the next downside objective. Near term resistance is sited at 113.90 rejects on first test, while 112.80 supports potential to test pivotal 114.20.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

Commodities FX: GOLD rallied off six day lows of $1,330 per ounce to finish 0.4% higher at $1,340.73 as the dollar slipped overnight. Oil settled 0.58% lower on Tuesday, to $42.77 per barrel. Today, EIA is expected to report a 1.0 million-barrel crude stockpile drawdown for the week ended Aug. 5, after unexpected rises in two prior weeks, according to Reuters’ poll.. AUD Surveys conducted by National Australia Bank showed that business conditions indicator fell to a six month low in July amid broad base decline in profitability even as exporters reported higher revenue last month. Business conditions index slumped from 11 in June to 8 in July. As sentiments turned more downbeat. Business confidence index edged lower (July: 4 vs June: 5).The only bright spot was Westpac consumer confidence index, which edged up to 101.00 in August (July: 99.10). CAD strengthened against the USD on Tuesday as commodity currencies were broadly rallied and the oil prices found support. The Canadian Housing Starts data was encouraging, released as 198.4k, beat the market forecasts of 191k.

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Range resistance at .7676 removed with near term support now at .7570, a close over .77 will shift attention to broader range resistance sited at .7830
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Sharp reversal ahead of 1.2965 symmetry swing support sets bullish sites on the upside equidistant swing target of 1.3380. Failure below 1.2950 opens 1.2860 as the next downside objective.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

XAUUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: Bulls target 1391 as the next upside objective, near term support is sited at 1330. Below 1300 opens 1270
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

USOIL
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Breach of bids at 41.87 opens 38.19 as the next downside objective, expect symmetry swing resistance sited at 43.28/96 to stall the corrective advance, a close over 44.40 is required to ease bearish pressure.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long