New York Forex Report: Dollar Mixed Ahead Of FED Speakers

New York Forex Report: Dollar MIxed Ahead Of FED Speakers

New York Forex Report: USD is ending the week somewhat mixed against its G10FX peers. Profit-taking has pushed the NZD lower and the GBP is broadly weaker on renewed Brexit jitters. Risk sentiment appears somewhat softer this morning, with European stocks lower and bank shares under-performing again. European bonds are underperforming in subdued ranges, however. Eurozone PMI data was mixed. Crude oil remains firm (but off yesterday’s highs) on speculation that OPEC members (Saudi Arabia and Iran) may be edging towards a deal to constrain supply that has been elusive so far. There is a limited data schedule today in the US—just the September Markit manufacturing PMI data at 10ET. However, the Fed speaker list is lengthier and more interesting; Mester and Harker speak on a panel at noon—Mester is a hawk and was a dissenter this week while Harker is a lesser-known quantity and votes in 2017. Another 2017 voter, Kaplan also due on the wires later.

FX Majors: EUR The ECB economic bulletin revealed that the governing council remains ready to act if necessary in order to achieve the bank’s price stability target. ECB remains less sanguine in its assessment of the risks to global economy, and noted prevailing macroeconomic uncertainty triggered by the Brexit vote, but acknowledged that volatility deriving from the vote was short-lived. Advanced estimates showed that consumer sentiment in the Eurozone improved in Sept, pushing the index higher to -8.2 from -8.5 previously. GBP rebounded from a five-week low against the USD on Thursday after a Bank of England policymaker said she saw no case for a further cut in interest rates to boost the economy following Britain’s vote to leave the European Union. Sterling was also strengthened late on Wednesday by weakness in the dollar after the US Federal Reserve kept monetary policy steady and projected a less aggressive path for rate hikes in coming years. JPY Japan’s top currency diplomat said that Japanese financial authorities are watching for speculative currency market moves and would respond if needed and they are worried that there are nervous moves in the currency market. Japan’s finance ministry, Financial Services Agency and the Bank of Japan will meet on today’s afternoon to discuss market issues in the wake of policy decisions from the BoJ and the US central bank, the agencies said.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: 1.1120 supports on the retest, near term resistance is sited at 1.13 removing this hurdle opens 1.1366. A break of 1.1120 support opens equidistant swing support at 1.1085.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: As 1.3150 rejects corrective advances bears target 1.2870 as the next downside objective. Only a close over 1.3130 eases bearish pressure
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Near term resistance is sited at 102.80 once again stalls the upside advance prompting a sharp intraday reversal. As 101.20/40 caps corrections bears target a retest of 99.50 lows.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Failure below 113 opens move back to 112 as the next downside objective, near term resistance is sited at 113.80 as this level survives on a closing basis bears target 110.80 next.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

Commodities FX: GOLD ended higher by 0.14% to $1,337.07 an ounce on Thursday after rising 1.5% the day before, with advances capped near the $1,340 level. Oil gained over 2% to close at $46.32 a barrel, supported by the weaker dollar and better risk appetite. AUD hit one-week highs after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) overhauled its massive stimulus programme and the dollar index hit five-day low after Fed left rates unchanged. The Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe gave an upbeat assessment of the economy in his first public appearance this morning and expected inflation to remain weak for some time, while the easing in monetary policy supporting jobs and economic activity .CAD strengthened to a one-week high against the US dollar as oil rose and the Federal Reserve held off from raising interest rates.

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: .7660 stalling advance just ahead of symmetry swing resistance sited at .7685. As .7600 supports expect a test of symmetry resistance next.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: As 1.30 supports 1.3372 is the equidistant AB=CD corrective objective, only below 1.2960 threatens near term bullish bias.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

XAUUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: 1301 AB=CD equidistant swing support has provided anticipated base. Near term resistance now at 1357, near term support is sited at 1323
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USOIL
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Equidistant swing resistance sited at 47.36 as this level rejected the corrective advance 41.81 becomes the downside objective, near term resistance is sited 46.62 over 47.50 targets retest of 48.90 potential double top.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short