New York Forex Report: Dollar Down On Soft Data

New York Forex Report: Dollar Down On Soft Data

New York Forex Report: Bulls didn’t get the June signal they were looking for form the April FOMC and despite the Fed sounding a little more optimistic about global conditions, the domestic outlook was downgraded once again with both inflation and growth forecasts lowered, underscored by a weaker-than-expected Q1 GDP print yesterday. JPY remains strongly bid following the BOJ meeting which took markets by surprise with the bank refraining from further easing at this point.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: Euro remains supported heading into the NY open on Friday following mixed data. EZ CPI printed below expectations in April but Q1 GDP improved.

Technical: 1.1220 is the pivotal support zone ahead while this area holds expect another test of offers towards 1.1400 a break higher here targets 1.1487 as the next upside objective. Failure at 1.1220 opens 1.1140
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: Sterling concedes some of its recent gains over the European morning as the latest Mortgage Approvals data printed below expectations.

Technical: While 1.4440/60 supports bulls target a broader symmetry swing objective at 1.4670. Failure at 1.44 opens a near term base test at 1.4240 next.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: USDJPY remains weak following the recent BOJ meeting and poor US data yesterday.

Technical: T he violent breach of 110 support suggests false upside break and opens a move to retest year to date lows, en-route to the weekly downside objectives of 106.50/105.50. Only over 111.80 eases immediate downside pressure
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: Japanese markets are shut for a public holiday. However, markets are still alert for any intervention from Japanese official since the JPY has gone too far and too fast.

Technical: Bears now target weekly symmetry objective at 120.60. Only a close over 126.80 eases immediate downside pressure
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Fundamental: soft inflation figures revived expectations of a cut in rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Markets projected an increasing chance of an easing to a record low of 1.75% at the RBA’s policy meeting next week

Technical: While .7550 supports expect a grind higher to retest.7830 highs. A failure at .7550 opens pivotal .7470/50 support
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: CAD hit nearly a 10-month high against the USD as oil rallied and weaker-than-expected US economic growth weighed on the USD Oil markets rose to new 2016 highs, with US crude settling at $46.03 per barrel, as a weaker USD had investors ignored record high US crude inventories

Technical: While prior support at 1.2740/60 acts as resistance expect a grind lower to test 1.2350 bids next.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short