New York Forex Report: Dollar Stride Continues On Hawkish FOMC Minutes

New York Forex Report: Dollar Stride Continues On Hawkish FOMC Minutes

New York Forex Report: USD remains supported over early European trading today extending gains in the wake of last night’s FOMC minutes release which bolstered bulls’ support fro a possible June hike. The removal of “global risks” from the recent Fed rhetoric was viewed by many as paving the way for a June hike and the latest minutes appear to be reaffirming this view. Policy makers said it would be appropriate to hike in June if economic data picks up in Q2 and that inflation and labour market condition continue to firm up. “Most participants judged that if incoming data were consistent with economic growth picking up in the second quarter, labour market conditions continue to strengthen and inflation making progress toward the 2% objective, then it likely would be appropriate for the Fed to increase the target range for the Fed Funds Rate in June”.

FX Majors: Light data morning for the majors. Sterling boosted by better Retail Sales data in April which printed strongly above expectations. AUD still weak despite a decline in the Unemployment rate overnight. Traders now await the release of the ECB meeting minutes at 1230GMT1. Key focus over the US session today will be on comments from Fed’s Fischer and Dudley who are both due to speak.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: Prior support at 1.1280 now becomes resistance while this area contains upside reactions, expect a test of 1.12 as interim support as bears now target symmetry support at 1.1065, only over 1.1450 eases immediate downside bias.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: The breach of 1.4550 eases immediate bearish bias. While 1.4500 contains downside reactions bulls target 1.4660 as the next upside objective, a close below 1.45 opens a move back to 1.4320
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: As 109.50 supports intraday expect a retest of offers at 110.60/90, a close over 111.90 eases immediate bearish bias
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Bears now target weekly symmetry objective at 120.60. Intraday resistance at 124.65 only a close above 126.80 eases immediate downside pressure.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

Commodities FX: Oil weakened over the European morning on Thursday weighed upon by heightened US rate-hike expectations following last night’s hawkish FOC minutes. Price had been boosted by supply outages but support from these events is fading now with Exxon Mobil increasing production of Nigeria’s largest crude stream to compensate for slowed output.

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: .7240 support erased now becomes intraday resistance as bears target .7050 as the next downside objective. Only a close over .7400 eases immediate downside pressure.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: While 1.2960 supports bulls target 1.3140 and 1.32 as the next upside extension targets. Only a close below 1.2760 eases immediate bullish pressure
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

XAUUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: 1288 is now resistance. The anticipated second leg of corrective price action is underway to test of the pivotal 1240. Price is currently sitting on trend line support at 1250.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USOIL
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: Oil as 46.70 supports 50.00 becomes the material upside objective, with a symmetry swing target sited at 50.51 ahead of the larger AB=CD swing objective at 51.09, only a close below 43.00 threatens bullish bias.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long