New York Forex Report: Focus Firmly on NFP’s

New York Forex Report: Focus Firmly on NFP’s

New York Forex Report: Focus is firmly on US non-farm payrolls the market anticipation appear genuinely high. Firstly because a positive report will bolster expectations that the Fed is inching ever closer to a policy tightening and secondly because the weaker than expected ISM report yesterday, which caught a market looking squarely at today’s jobs report off guard, will make decent August NFP data all the more impressive. A quick look at the consensus on Bloomberg shows the market is anticipating job gains of 180k. It should be noted that August data tend to disappoint the consensus expectation (there are perhaps seasonal quirks with the data involving the timing of Labour Day or other issues). It has also been noted that August data are also often subject to upward revisions. With a long weekend in North America just around the corner, the potential for extended moves today may be limited.

FX Majors: EUR surged from 1.1140 to highs of 1.1205 on Thursday as US manufacturing activity unexpectedly declined in August, casting some doubts on the strength of US economic growth. The Fed’s Loretta said the US labor markets are at full employment and the Fed should on a path of gradual interest rate increases. Despite this hawkish speech, the USD still went down due to the disappointing manufacturing data. GBP gained more than 1 percent to trade above 1.33 against the dollar for the first time in four weeks on Thursday, after data showed the British manufacturing sector staged one of its sharpest rebounds on record in August. GBP extended gains in New York session after a similar survey on the US manufacturing sector unexpectedly showed a contraction in activity, leading to a sell-off in the USD and a trimming of expectations of a near term rate hike by the Federal Reserve. JPY Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services yesterday confirmed Japan’s A+/A-1 sovereign debt rating and maintained a stable outlook despite its heavy debt burden, saying political stability and stable financial system offset fiscal woes.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: EUR tests and holds symmetry swing support sited at 1.1125. Over 1.1250 brings last weeks highs back into play at 1.1366. Failure below 1.1120 opens 1.1050 next
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Anticipated move back to 1.3278 highs achieved as 1.32 supports expect pivotal test of 1.3372 next
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Anticipated test of offers over 104 reject the initial foray above the figure, as 102.80 supports 105.50 is the next upside objective
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: The close over 114.70 symmetry swing resistance opens a move to test 116.10 as the next meaningful upside hurdle. As 114.70 supports bulls target 116.40
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

Commodities FX: GOLD stabilised after it dropped to its lowest in more than two months on Thursday as markets await US jobs figures which could determine the Fed’s monetary policy direction. Oil fell more than 2%, heading for their sharpest weekly loss since January, as markets brushed aside talk that OPEC might freeze production and focused on a growing glut from US crude stockpiles. Government data on Wednesday showed a 2.3 million-barrel build in US crude stocks in the last week, more than double what the market had expected. Inventories of distillates, which include diesel and heating oil, rose nearly 10 times as much as forecast. AUD Australia’s retail sales was flat in July, after climbing 0.1% MOM in June. Sales figure registered no growth for the first time in five months, signalling that consumer spending may have lost momentum at the turn of the third quarter. CAD made small gains against a broadly weaker USD as oil prices slumped and an unexpected decline in US manufacturing figures arouse some doubts on economic growth.

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Support at symmetry swing .7501 to caps downside correction and set a base to target offers over .7600. A close below .7500 would concern the near term bullish bias.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Resistance sited at 1.30 has been removed as 1.2960 supports near term expect a further grind higher to test 1.32 as the next upside objective
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

XAUUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: 1301 represents AB=CD equidistant swing support. Below 1300 opens 1270. As 1300 supports expect a test of 1330 to suggest a base.

Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

USOIL
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Breach below 43.60 concerns the near term bullish bias, near term Resistance is now sited at 45.00 as this area reject 41.00 become the next downside objective
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

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