New York Forex Report: Game Time

New York Forex Report: Game Time

New York Forex Report: Election day is finally here and voting is already underway in eight states. Markets face a long day of headline risk and rumour-driven flows before the outcome becomes (hopefully) clear. Polls close after 7pm ET on the East coast but in recent elections, the US TV networks have “called” the election result only after 11PM ET, once West coast polling ends. This year is a little unusual in that Slate.com has teamed up with VoteCastr to break the traditional election day embargo on voting trends and provide analysis of early voting trends four key states, including Florida; VoteCastr goes live at 8.00am ET. Markets are quiet generally; the USD is mixed versus it G10FX peers and most currencies are experiencing limited movement, European equities are flat while US Treasuries are modestly better bid and gold is slightly firmer. Markets view a Clinton win as offering policy continuity generally, keeping the Fed on track for a December policy tightening and supporting the USD. A Trump win would be a surprise for markets and prompt a move to safe haven, at least in the short run. The worst outcome for markets would be an inconclusive result tonight.

FX Majors: EUR In the euro area, Sentix investor confidence index surged to 13.1 in November (October: 8.5). Optimism climbed to the highest level this year and was an indication as investors expected economic conditions to improve in the near future, in sync with diminishing headwinds observed since last quarter. On a second report, retail sales rose at a slower pace of 1.10% YOY in September (August: revised to +1.20% YOY) and was the slowest pace in two years. GBP Record low lending rates and shortages of housing supply boosted demand for properties in the UK, but Brexit concerns continued to weigh down on price growth. Home prices moderated again, report from Halifax showed. Affirming underlying weakness in the property sector, house prices grew 5.20% YOY in October followed a 5.80% YOY increase in September, marking its third straight monthly slowdown. JPY Japan released BoJ September meeting minutes yesterday. A majority of Bank of Japan policymakers believe it could take time for inflation expectations to firm, underscoring lingering doubts on how effective the BoJ’s new policy framework would be in achieving its ambitious 2% price target

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Expected offers on initial test of 1.1120/30 stalled advance, as we now test 1.1030/20 resistance to act as support, only over 1.1230 eases bearish bias with 1.1304 the symmetry swing upside objective.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Medium term resistance is sited at 1.2550. A close over 1.2550 eases bearish pressure. Interim support is sited at 1.24, below 1.2350 suggests false upside break and return to broader range trade.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: 102.50 to 105.50 will likely contain the price action ahead of this weeks major headline risk Wednesday. A downside break target 101.28 an upside break targets 107.40
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Upside attention on 116.20 as the primary upside objective with in in the broader 112-116 range. A tops side expansion through 116 opens 121 equidistant swing objective. Back below 114 opens 112 again.

Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

Commodities FX: GOLD dropped 1.8% to 1281.38 per ounce, its biggest single day decline since 4-Oct, on reduced elections worries after FBI cleared Hillary Clinton of criminal charges. OIL settled up 82 cents, or 1.9%, at $44.89 a barrel, tracking the broad risk rally and finishing up for the first time in seven sessions. AUD Australia’s NAB business conditions index dropped from 8 in September to 6 in October, marking its lowest reading since January. Deterioration in business climate dragged business confidence last month. The gauge of confidence fell from 6 in September to 4 in October. CAD rallied back just a little from recent lows, helped along by the positive risk reaction to odds of Clinton winning today’s US election. The concurrent recovery in the price of OIL has also contributed to Loonie bids, though overall, this is a currency that is still expected to be well offered into rallies as yield differentials with the USD come back to the forefront post election.

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: AUD continues to rotates in the upper end of the contracting range with .7730 capping upside and .7500 containing downside reactions, a breach of the lower end of the range opens .7412 symmetry support. Through .7750 opens .7830 on the upside.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: As 1.3230 supports bulls target a move to 1.35, only below 1.2960 threatens this objective and suggests a test of pivotal 1.2820.

Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

XAUUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Anticipate test of 1229 symmetry swing support failure here lets bears target 1200 as the next downside objective, near term resistance is sited at pivotal 1307.

Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USOIL
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: The failure at 46.03 has opened 42.73 as the next downside objective ahead of 39.78. Near term resistance is sited at 44.86 ahead of 46.38
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral