New York Forex Report: GDP To Decide End Of Week Dollar Direction

New York Forex Report: GDP To Decide End Of Week Dollar Direction

New York Forex Report: The USD is down modestly on the session overall (as measured by the USD Index performance) but, at current levels, is still heading for a fourth consecutive higher weekly close. Overnight movement in the majors is again fairly contained; the EUR has bounced a little and is outperforming while the GBP is under-performing on the session as Brexit concerns continue to undermine prospects. The markets got little directional input from yesterday’s US durable goods but today’s Q3 GDP may provide a little more incentive for the USD bulls if the data show the expected rebound in activity in Q3 (2.6% consensus).

FX Majors: EUR Higher Bund yields supportive, market discounting no ECB ease this year. The ECB’s M3 money supply indicator grew 5.0% on the year in September after 5.1% in August. Data missed forecasts for an unchanged reading of 5.1% GBP A robust services industry prevented an abrupt slowdown in UK’s economy last quarter. According to advance estimate, the economy expanded 0.50% QOQ in 3Q. The pace of slowdown was less than anticipated as services sector staged a strong 0.8% QOQ growth, offsetting the declines in production and construction. JPY Separately, Japan’s small business confidence index climbed to its highest level since March despite modest economic growth. The index edged up to 48.3 in October (September: 47.7).

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Bears seek the next downside objective sited at 1.0845, below here opens 1.08. Near term resistance is sited at 1.0930/50, medium term resistance is sited at 1.1030 only over 1.1230 eases bearish bias.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: As 1.2250 rejects near term corrective advances bears now target pivotal 1.20. Medium term resistance is sited at 1.2330. Only a close over 1.25 eases bearish pressure.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: 105 is attained bulls target 107 symmetry swing objective next, support is at 104.80 only a close below 103.80 eases bullish pressure.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Yesterday’s close over 114.30 eases bearish pressure and sets attention on 116.20 as the primary upside objective withing in the broader 112-116 range
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

Commodities FX: GOLD was supported by the firm dollar amid as markets awaited more direction on a rate hike from the US Fed. OIL prices edged over the $50 a barrel threshold as the commodity drew support from a reported drop in US crude inventories and comments from OPEC gulf members. Reuters reported that energy ministers from Saudi Arabia and their gulf allies stated that they would be willing to reduce oil output by around 4% AUD China’s industrial profit climbed 7.70% YOY in September, slowing down from the 19.50% YOY increase in August. Smaller increase in profit mirrored the deceleration in industrial production growth from 6.30% in August to 6.10% in September. CAD has been one of the weaker currencies over the past week, with the Loonie suffering from yield differentials with the USD and a pullback in the price of OIL

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: A close over .7730 reverses bearish bias and focus shifts to .7830. The further rejection above .7700 should open a quick test of .7500
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: 1.3360 equidistant AB=CD upside objective achieved as 1.3230 supports bulls target a move to 1.35, only below 1.2960 threatens this objective and suggests a test of pivotal 1.2820.

Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

XAUUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Anticipate test of 1229 symmetry swing support failure here lets bears target 1200 as the next downside objective, near term resistance is sited 1276 ahead of pivotal 1300.

Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

USOIL
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: Equidistant swing objective sited at 52.40 is the primary upside objective. Failure at 49.50 opens symmetry swing support at 47.20
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

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