New York Forex Report: Hawkish Fed Supports Dollar

New York Forex Report: Hawkish Fed Supports Dollar

New York Forex Report: USD continues to storm higher supported by a raft of positive Fed commentary with Fed’s Williams and Lockhart yesterday noting their support for a possible 2 or 3 rate hikes this year. Williams sees conditions as lining up in favour of such a rate path and pointed specifically to the upcoming meetings, including June, as being very live meetings. Yesterday saw April CPI data print in-line with expectations though markets were hoping for a beat. Traders now await the release of the April FOMC meeting minutes later today.

FX Majors: EuroZone Final Inflation for April came out unchanged following data yesterday that showed an increase in the EuroZone trade surplus. Sterling bounced from initial session lows as average weekly earnings data improved slightly 3/m March YoY to 2.% from 1.9% against expectations of 1.7% though the ex-bonus figure was slightly weaker than expected.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: Prior support at 1.1350 now becomes resistance while this area contains upside reactions, expect a test of 1.1240 as interim support as bears now target symmetry support at 1.1065, only over 1.1450 eases immediate downside bias.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: Bids ahead of 1.4316 primary symmetry support, the short squeeze fell short of resistance at 1.4530, only over 1.4550 eases immediate bearish bias. While 1.4530 contains upside 1.4370 is next downside objective below 1.43 opens 1.4260 symmetry support.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: As 108.20 supports intraday expect a retest of offers at prior highs en route to symmetry swing resistance at 109.80 where trend selling should re-emerge, over 111 eases immediate bearish bias
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Bears now target weekly symmetry objective at 120.60. Intraday resistance at 124.65 only a close above 126.80 eases immediate downside pressure.

Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

Commodities FX: Oil prices continue to surge higher as production outages that have recently damage global supply continue to worsen specifically the wildfire situation in Canada. An increasing amount of analysts are now forecasting a much larger rally should price break above the $50 mark, seeing risk assets dragged higher also.

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: .7240 level survives on a closing basis AUD and the anticipated window to correct the recent pull back to test symmetry resistance sited at .7580 is in play. Intraday resistance is sited at .7400

Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: 1.30 upside objective achieved expected a correction to retest 1.2740/60 is underway, this level should now act as support for further upside corrective action.

Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

XAUUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: : Gold has tested and held the 1260 symmetry swing level, 1283 is now resistance for a further leg of corrective price action to set up a test of the pivotal 1240. A close over 1285 suggests early upside reversal targeting a retest of 1303 next

Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

USOIL
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: Oil as 46.70 supports 50.00 becomes the material upside objective, with a symmetry swing target sited at 50.51 ahead of the larger AB=CD swing objective at 51.09, only a close below 43.00 threatens bullish bias.

Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines