New York Forex Report: Jobs Data To Seal Next Weeks Hike

New York Forex Report: Jobs Data To Seal Next Weeks Hike

New York Forex Report: The USD is narrowly mixed ahead of the Feb NFP report Market expectations for the US NFP release have risen sharply following the ADP report, of course; the consensus at the start of the week called for 180K gains and stands at 200k now. The EUR is slightly better supported but remains below recent highs in the aftermath of the ECB policy meeting Thursday. Meanwhile the JPY is under-performing with global stocks ending the week in positive mood. The UK reported generally soft industrial production data earlier. Construction output fell 0.4% in the same month (versus expectations of -0.2%). The trade deficit was little changed at GBP10.8bn (slightly better than consensus expectations). Weaker output and building will bolster concerns that the UK economy is slowing, while inflation is picking up, just as the UK government is about the trigger Article 50.

FX Majors: EUR ECB kept its monetary policy unchanged while both GDP and inflation forecast have been revised slightly higher. Main refinancing rate was left at zero, deposit rate at -0.40% and affirmed that monthly asset purchases will be reduced to €60 billion starting next month. Reflecting an improvement in economic outlook, GDP growth have been revised higher to 1.80% for this year (previous: 1.70%) and 1.70% for next year (previous: 1.60%). In addition, inflation outlook has been revised up to 1.70% for 2017 (previous: 1.30%) and 1.60% for 2018 (previous: 1.50%). GBP Political considerations remain paramount as the UK government prepares to formally declare its departure from the EU. Press reports suggest Scottish leaders are eyeing a 2018 time slot for a second independence referendum. JPY Japan’s machine tool orders increased 9.10% YoY in February, taking up at the pace of 3.50% YoY in January. Orders grew at its quickest pace in 21 months as foreign purchases rose 12.10% YoY, driving orders higher on top of surging domestic demand.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: A closing breach of 1.05 opens a move to 1.0450 next, only over 1.0650 arrests near term bearish bias and resets attention on upside objectives
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: As 1.2215 continues to cap corrections 1.1990 becomes the next downside objective, only over 1.2330 stems selling pressure

Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: The close over 114.50 reasserts upside targets and 114.50 now becomes near term support as price primarily targets stops over 115.50. Failure below 113.80 concerns near term bullish bias.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Close over 121.50 stems near term selling pressure and resets focus on upside objectives with an immediate focus on 122.50 as the primary upside objective. Only below 121 concerns near term bullish bias

Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

Commodities FX: GOLD dropped below $1,200 for the first time since early February, touching a low of $1,199.35 before closing at $1201.24. OIL extended prior day’s 5% losses to close another 2% lower on Thursday, at $49.28 per barrel. The first drop since December below the well-watched $50 mark also stoked the second-highest WTI options trading volume ever. AUD declined against the USD, amid lower iron ore prices, higher Australian 2-year government bonds failed to support the AUD. CAD giving up another 0.3% against the USD, and hitting new 2017 lows, the decline appears to be as a result of falling oil prices, traders will be watching Canadian employment data today

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: .7500 downside objective achieved as .7570 caps upside corrections .7450 becomes the next downside objective, only over .7650 resets attention on upside targets

Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Symmetry swing objective sited at 1.3480 achieved, as 1.3390 supports bulls target 1.3598 . Only a close below 1.33 concerns the near term bullish bias
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

XAUUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: The close below 1215 invalidates bullish bias opening a retest of 1200 as 1225 caps upside corrections 1180 becomes the next downside objective
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

USOIL
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: Price is now testing primary trend line support from the February 2016 lows at 48.70 while this are supports there is an opportunity to retest range support at 51.00 as this level caps upside reactions bears target 45.70 as he next downside objective
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

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