New York Forex Report: Markets Await Key US Data

New York Forex Report: Markets Await Key US Data

New York Forex Report: Traders finally have some key US data in the offing over today;s US session, to break up an otherwise quiet week. March Retail Sales are duet out at 1330GMT, expected to improve to 0.1% from -0.1% previous. We also have the Bank of Canada April rate Decision, and whilst the bank are widely expected to keep rates on hold, traders will be keen to hear the latest outlook from the bank following last month’s surprisingly neutral message.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: EUR traded sharply lower over the European morning as the latest EuroZone Industrial Production figures printed well beneath expectations at 0.8% vs 1.3% in April

Technical: Price continues to recoil and rotate below symmetry swing objective at 1.1420, printing a hight of 1.1465 before pulling back below the figure, price action appears to be coiling. While 1,1330 continues to support expect a test of offers towards 1.15 next.Failure at 1.1330 opens 1.1220 support next.

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.1330 stops below. Offers 1.1450 stops above.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: Sterling remains supported in the wake of yesterday;s CPI figures which showed core inflation in March had risen 1.5% YoY, the biggest jump since 2014.

Technical: Price continues to finds bids at 1.4050 pivotal support within the broader 1.45/1.40 range, While 1.4140 supports 1.44 symmetry swing objective is the upside target.. A failure to hold 1.40 opens a retest of year to date lows at 1.38 ahead of 1.37 weekly swing objective.

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.41 stops below. Offers 1.44 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: Improved sentiment boosted the USD which climbed above 108.50 levels against the JPY, after hitting its lowest level of 107.66 on Monday. The Bank of Japan still has tools left to expand monetary stimulus further but must bear in mind that there are limits to how much it can deepen negative interest rates, according to a senior International Monetary Fund official said yesterday.

Technical: The downside ratchet now targets 105.50 as the next major downside objective. Near term look for upside reaction to fail at 1.09 ahead of trend resistance at 110.50 for renewed weakness.

Interbank Flows: Bids 107.50 offers below. Offers 109 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: Japanese machine orders fell 21.2% YoY in March, dragged mostly by sluggishness in foreign orders. On a separate release, PPI slumped 3.8% YoY (Feb: -3.4% YoY), marking the steepest decline in five months as deflationary pressure showed no signs of abating.

Technical: Bears target a retest of 122.05 year to date lows, resistance is sited at 124.50. Only a close over 126.80 eases immediate downside pressure

Interbank Flows: Bids 122 stops below. Offers 124.50 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Fundamental: AUD was under pressure over the European session this morning, extending losses seen overnight on the release of the latest Chinese trade balance data which shwoed imports fell -13.8% in March against expectations of -10.1%

Technical: Only a close below .7500 threatens the near term bullish bias, while this level supports intraday expect a grind higher to test .7770. A failure at .7500 opens pivotal .7450 support.

Interbank Flows: Bids .7500 stops below. Offers .7700 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: CAD strengthened to a near nine-month high against the US dollar as rising oil prices improved the economic outlook before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate announcement due today. The currency rebounded 15 percent since January, when it hit a 12-year low at 1.4689, supported by a partial recovery in oil prices, the Canadian government’s plan for fiscal stimulus and sharply reduced expectations for Bank of Canada rate cuts.

Technical: Anticipated retest of 1.2830/50 level under way as we once again attempt to set a double bottom base to encourage a broader correction.Failure below 1.2780 opens 1.2550 as the next downside objective.

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.2750 stops below. Offers 1.3250 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short