New York Forex Report: Markets Eye Key US Data Ahead Of FOMC Tomorrow

New York Forex Report: Markets Eye Key US Data Ahead Of FOMC Tomorrow

New York Forex Report: The first tier one data of the week is on deck over today’s US session with March Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence at 1300GMT1 and 1500GMT respectively. Consumer Confidence improved last month but is now set to soften a little this month to 96 from 96.2 previous. These are the last key US data prints ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting with markets remaining mostly quiet ahead of the event. Stronger Oil over the European morning has turned risk assets higher however, with GBP and AUD both leading against the US Dollar.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: EUR continues to gain against USD even though the April German IFO Business Climate was worse than the market expectations yesterday. US home sales data declined 1.5% month over month, causing the USD pull back in the early US session. Traders are likely to on hold before the FED meeting due this Thursday. EURUSD is expected to range ahead of the risk event.

Technical: Anticipated retest of bids at 1.1220 attracted buyers on the initial test while 1.13 acts as resistance bears target 1.1140 as the next downside objective . Only over 1.14 negates near term bearishness
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: Sterling continues to push higher as bets on Brexit issue cool down after US president Barack Obama stated his support for Britain to stay in the European Union.

Technical: While 1.43 supports bulls target a broader symmetry swing objective at 1.4670. Failure at 1.43 opens a near term base test at 1.4240 next.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: USD a little softer against the JPY ahead of US and Japanese rate decisions this week. Markets expect BoJ will cut its price forecasts and debate whether a strong JPY and weak global demand have hurt inflation expectations enough to deliver fresh stimulus at its 27 – 28 April policy meeting.

Technical: While 110 now acts as supports expect a test of 112 offers, breach of 110 support suggests false upside break and opens a move to retest year to date lows
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: Final print of leading indicator confirmed the Japanese economy is poised to slow further in the next three to six months, heightening speculation the BOJ may do more to spur growth in the ailing economy. The leading index fell more than initially estimated to 96.8 in February (Jan: 101.2) while the coincident index is equally downbeat, falling 1.6 points to 110.7 in February.

Technical: Bears now target weekly symmetry objective at 120.60, resistance is sited at 125.50. Only a close over 126.80 eases immediate downside pressure.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Fundamental: AUD traded higher over the European morning boosted by reignited risk appetite as Oil turns higher once again.

Technical: While .7680 supports the advance bulls target .7880 as the next upside objective, failure at .7650 opens a move back to test .7470.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: Canadian Dollar strengthened over the European morning as Oil turned higher once again. USDCAD also weighed upon by USD weakness ahead of tomorrow’s headline event.

Technical: While prior support at 1.2740/60 acts as resistance expect a test of bids at 1.2560 as the next downside objective
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short