New York Forex Report: Markets Range-bound Following Last Week’s Risk Rally

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: Quiet trading over the European session today as markets digests the moves we saw into the end of last week. Traders await major data releases this week such as US retail sales, September’s PPI and CPI figures, while consumer inflation numbers and trade balance data for the EuroZone will also be published. German CPI and ZEW will be key data focus tomorrow.

Technical: price is pressuring the upper end of the recent range and the sustained breach of 1.1330 now targets 1.1460 as the next upside objective. Look for 1.1280/1.13 to provide intraday support for the advance

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.13 stops below. Offers 1.14 Stops above.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Buy pullbacks against 1.1280 targeting 1.15

eu2015-10-12 07_28_18-NetDania - NetStation

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental:  As price consolidates within Friday’s range, traders await key UK data with CPI on Tuesday (expected 0%) and the employment report on Wednesday with unemployment expected to remain unchanged at 5.5%. Average earnings data will also be key on Wednesday expected to show a further rise to 3.1% from 2.9% last month.

Technical: 1.54 offers cap advance for now. While intraday downside reactions are support towards .153 near term upside remains in tact, with 1.55 targeted as the next upside objective.

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.5260/80 stops below. Offers 1.54 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Stay long for 1.55

gu2015-10-12 07_28_55-NetDania - NetStation

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: The announcement of fresh stimulus by the Chinese central bank over the weekend has seen last week’s improved risk sentiment continue this week leaving JPY trading lower as safe-haven flows are reduced.

Technical: Continues to coil in contracting range, play range 121.50 the offer and 118.50 the bid until broken.

Interbank Flows: Bids 118.50/30 stops below. Offers 121.50 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Neutral to bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines for now

uj2015-10-12 07_29_27-NetDania - NetStation

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: BOJ minutes release later today will be key data focus for JPY traders with market expectations still leaning towards further easing being announced on October 30th.

Technical:  The close above 136 opens a retest of upper end of the recent range and a retest of offers at 137 next. Remain bullish while 136 supports intraday downside reactions

Interbank Flows: Bids 136 stops below. Offers 137 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Neutral to bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines for now

ey2015-10-12 07_30_00-NetDania - NetStation

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: Higher commodity prices, stronger global stock markets and weaker US economic figures have supported the Australian dollar throughout last week and already over today’s European trading we have seen this strength continue.Unemployment is the key data for the week expected to remain unchanged at 6.2%, whilst Chinese and US data provide external risks.

Technical: Offers at equality corrective objective at .73 eroded. Near term bullish bias remain intact while .73 supports intraday downside reactions. Bulls now target .7400 as the next upside objective

Interbank Flows: Bids .7300 stops below. Offers .7400 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Buy pull backs against .7300 targeting .7400

au2015-10-12 08_02_35-NetDania - NetStation

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Fundamental: Having rallied sharply last week, the Canadian Dollar begins the new week on a softer footing Oil too is just off last week’s highs. The improved risk carry-over should see the Canadian Dollar firmer again this week. Traders will be pay attention to key US & Chinese data releases in the absence of meaningful domestic data.

Technical: Near term bearish tend remains intact as intraday resistance at 1.2960 contains intraday upside reactions bears target 1.2850 bids as the next downside objective

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.289 stops below. Offers 1.2960 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines for now

uc2015-10-12 08_04_16-NetDania - NetStation

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