New York Forex Report: Markets Await US Employment Reports

New York Forex Report: Markets Await US Employment Reports

New York Forex Report: Echoing earlier Fed speaks, another four Fed officials said they were open to considering an interest rate increase in June and reiterated that decision will still be data dependent and officials will continue to “closely monitor” global development before June’s meeting. US jobless claims increased to 274k last week from 257k following a rather disappointing ADP employment figure. Private sector employers only added 156k jobs in April (March: 194k), suggesting that April’s nonfarm payroll may be lower than consensus estimates.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Fundamental: Choppy flows persist ahead of the US employment reports later today with EUR grinding slightly higher over the session.

Technical: EUR bulls back under pressure with the failure at 1.1450, the next support level to be tested will be the symmetry support at 1.1368 failure here opens a return to retest 1.1240 support,
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: Sterling rebounded higher over the session benefiting from USD weakness ahead of the NFPs.

Technical: A failure at 1.4470 opens a deeper correction to 1.4280 next.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: Low liquidity rotation ahead of the NFPs continues.The Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe expressed his readiness to take appropriate action in the currency market to prevent any excessive rises in JPY, stating excessive volatility in the JPY was undesirable for Japan’s trade-reliant companies

Technical: 105.50 weekly swing objective achieved, 107.50 now becomes resistance a move through here opens a retest of 110 from below.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: ECB’s latest economic bulletin reiterated concerns of low inflationary pressure, expected to remain negative in the coming months before picking up during the second half of the year on base effects. ECB has started to expand monthly asset purchases to € 80 billion and “intended to run until the end of March 2017 or beyond if necessary”, hinting that additional stimulus is still on the table. In June, ECB will conduct its first operation of targeted longer term refinancing operations (TLTRO II).

Technical: Bears now target weekly symmetry objective at 120.60. Only a close over 126.80 eases immediate downside pressure. Intraday resistance now sited at 123.30/50
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Fundamental: AUDUSD still under pressure following Overnight comments from the RBA regarding further failure to achieve inflation objectives have seen the Aussie print fresh lows overnight.

Technical: The failure at .7450 opens .7380 as the next downside objective, this level is pivotal for the upside correction to be maintained.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: CAD was little changed against the USD as the benefit from a rally in oil was tempered by worries that economic growth could be weaker than expected. The slight gain was a reprieve after a more than 2% drop over the past two sessions as weaker-than-expected trade figures released this week has weighed on Canada’s growth outlook.

Technical: The close above 1.2750 negates near term bearish pressure and open a move to 1.30 as the next upside objective. 1.2740/60 should now act as support for further upside corrective action
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines